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Saturday, 25 June 2022
Sat, 25 Jun 2022

Building effective altruism 4
Community 2
Red teaming 2
Forecasting 2
Research 1
Criticism and Red Teaming Contest 1
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Quick takes

My attempt to help with AI Safety Meta: This feels like something emotional where if somebody would look at my plan from the outside, they'd have obvious and good feedback, but my own social circle is not worried or knowledgable about AGI, and so I hope someone will read this. Best bet: Meta software projects It would be my best personal fit, running one or multiple software projects that require product work such as understanding what the users actually want. My bottle neck: Talking to actual users with pain points (researchers? meta orgs with software problems? funders? I don't know) Plan B: Advocacy I think I have potential to grow into a role where I explain complicated things in a simple way, without annoying people. Advocacy seems scary, but I think my experience strongly suggests I should try. Plan C: Research? Usually when I look closely at a field, I have new stuff to contribute. I do have impostor syndrome around AGI Safety research, but again, probably people like me should try (?) [I am not a mathematician at all. Am I just wrong here?] Bottle neck for Plans B+C: Getting a better model What model specifically: If you'd erase all information I heard about experts speculating "when will we have AGI" and "what's the chance it will kill us all?", could I re-invent it? could I figure out which expert is right? This seems like the first layer, and an important one My actionable items: 1. Talk to friends about AGI. They ask questions, like "can't the AGI simply ADVICE us on what to do?", and I answer.  1. We both improve our model (specifically, if what I say doesn't seem convincing, then maybe it's wrong?) 2. I slowly exit my comfort zone of "being the weird person talking about AGI" 2. Write my own model, post it for comments 1. Maybe my agreements/disagreements with this? 2. Seems hard and tiring What am I missing? Give me the obvious stuff