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Michael Aird
Feb 10, 2023
Approver
Relevant things I hadn't read when I wrote this include:
"Examining pathways from narrow AI to nuclear war"
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A-W3ahsV3DspgnEk7iRXlyctkL0D0kwgP09OGFRu5BI/edit#
"Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Command, Control, & Communications: The Risks of Integration"
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BGFk3fZF36i7kpwWM/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-command-control-and-1
"Examining pathways from narrow AI to nuclear war"
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1A-W3ahsV3DspgnEk7iRXlyctkL0D0kwgP09OGFRu5BI/edit#
"Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Command, Control, & Communications: The Risks of Integration"
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BGFk3fZF36i7kpwWM/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-command-control-and-1
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Outline
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Technological developments that could increase risks from nuclear weapons: A shallow review
Headings you add to the document will appear here.
Technological developments that could increase risks from nuclear weapons
Summary
Epistemic status
How to engage with this post
Scope of this post
Bomb types and production methods
Radiological weapons / Salted bombs
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What this is
What developments might occur? How likely are they?
Some historical info:
Info on Russia’s in-development Poseidon system:
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
What could be done about this?
Additional notes
Pure fusion bombs
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What this is and why it might increase risk
What developments might occur?
High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP)
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What this is
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
Relevant forecasts
Neutron bombs
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What this is and what developments might occur
Why might this increase risk
Methods for production and design
Atomically precise manufacturing (APM)
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What is this, and what developments might occur?
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
AI-assisted production/design
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
Other developments in methods for production/design
Delivery systems
Hypersonic missiles/glide vehicles
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What this is
What developments might occur?
What developments seem in theory possible and notable
Statements from analysts
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
Additional notes
More accurate nuclear weapons
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
Preamble
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
Why might this increase or decrease nuclear risk?
Why might this decrease nuclear risk?
Additional notes
Long-range conventional strike capabilities
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
Preamble
What this is
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
Why might this reduce nuclear risk?
Additional notes
Detection and defense
Better detection of nuclear warhead platforms, launchers, and/or delivery vehicles
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
Preamble
What developments might occur, and why might this increase nuclear risk?
Sea
Land and air
Additional notes
Missile defense systems
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What developments might occur, and why might this increase or reduce nuclear risk?
Additional notes
AI and cyber
Advances in AI capabilities
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What developments might occur, and why might they increase nuclear risk?
AI-assisted detection of nuclear warhead platforms, launchers, and/or delivery vehicles
AI-assisted nuclear-weapons-related production/design
Advances in autonomous weapons
Advances in AI systems that are integrated with NC3 systems
Better cyberattack capabilities
AI-assisted maneuverability and precision guidance for missiles/vehicles
Advances in any of a wide range of AI systems that could accelerate economic growth and/or technological/scientific progress
More advanced AI of the sort that could adversarially optimize against humans by using nuclear weapons
Additional notes relevant to this section as a whole
Cyberattack (or defense) capabilities
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What developments might occur, and why might they occur?
Why might this increase nuclear risk?
What about cyberdefense?
Additional notes
Advances in autonomous weapons
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What developments might occur and why might this increase risks?
Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs)
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)
Autonomous weapons in general
Additional notes
More integration of AI with NC3 systems
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
Background
What developments might occur and why might this increase risks?
Why might this increase risk?
What could be done about this?
Relevant forecasts
Additional notes
Additional notes relevant to this category as a whole
Non-nuclear warmaking advancements (other than AI and cyber)
Anti-satellite weapons (ASAT)
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
What this is
What developments might occur?
Why might this increase (or decrease) nuclear risk?
Additional notes
“Space planes” and other (non-ASAT) space capabilities
Tentative bottom-line views about this development
Potential developments we ran out of time to look into at all
Much smaller nuclear weapons
Advances in nuclear energy
Directions for future work
Acknowledgements
Appendix/Tangential thought
Changes by
Technological developments that could increase risks from nuclear weapons: A shallow review
