[Epistemic status: speculation based on priors about international organizations. I know next to nothing about the WHO specifically.]
[On the WHO declaring COVID-19 a pandemic only (?) on March 12th. Prompted by this Facebook discussion on epistemic modesty on COVID-19.]
- [ETA: this point is likely wrong, cf. Khorton's comment below. However, I believe the conclusion that the timing of WHO declarations by itself doesn't provide a significant argument against epistemic modesty still stands, as I explain in a follow-up comment below.] The WHO declaring a pandemic has a bunch of major legal and institutional consequences. E.g. my guess is that among other things it affects the amounts of resources the WHO and other actors can utilize, the kind of work the WHO and others are allowed to do, and the kind of recommendations the WHO can make.
- The optimal time for the WHO to declare a pandemic is primarily determined by these legal and institutional consequences. Whether COVID-19 is or will in fact be a pandemic in the everyday or epidemiological sense is an important input into the decision, but not a decisive one.
- Without familiarity with the WHO and the legal and institutional system it is a part of, it is very difficult to accurately assess the consequences of the WHO declaring a pandemic. Therefore, it is very hard to evaluate the timing of the WHO's declaration without such familiarity. And being even maximally well-informed about COVID-19 itself isn't even remotely sufficient for an accurate evaluation.
- The bottom line is that the WHO officially declaring that COVID-19 is a pandemic is a totally different thing from any individual persuasively arguing that COVID-19 is or will be a pandemic. In a language that would accurately reflect differences in meaning, me saying that COVID-19 is a pandemic and the WHO declaring COVID-19 is a pandemic would be done using different words. It is simply not the primary purpose of this WHO speech act to be an early, accurate, reliable, or whatever indicator of whether "COVID-19 is a pandemic", to predict its impact, or any other similar thing. It isn't primarily epistemic in any sense.
- If just based on information about COVID-19 itself someone confidently thinks that the WHO ought to have declared a pandemic earlier, they are making a mistake akin to the mistake reflected by answering "yes" to the question "could you pass me the salt?" without doing anything.
So did the WHO make a mistake by not declaring COVID-19 to be a pandemic earlier, and if so how consequential was it? Well, I think the timing was probably suboptimal just because my prior is that most complex institutions aren't optimized for getting the timing of such things exactly right. But I have no idea how consequential a potential mistake was. In fact, I'm about 50-50 on whether the optimal time would have been slightly earlier or slightly later. (Though substantially earlier seems significantly more likely optimal than substantially later.)
For example, to me, the WHO taking until ~March 12 to call this a pandemic*, when the informed amateurs I listen to were all pretty convinced that this will be pretty bad since at least early March, is at least some evidence that trusting informed amateurs has some value over entirely trusting people usually perceived as experts.
Also, predicting that something will be pretty bad or will be a pandemic is not the same as saying it is now a pandemic. When did it become a pandemic according to the WHO's definition?
Expanding a quote I found on the wiki pag... (read more)