Medium term AI forecasting with Metaculus
I'm working on a collection of metaculus.com questions intended to generate AI domain specific forecasting insights. These questions are intended to resolve in the 1-15 year range, and my hope is that if they're sufficiently independent, we'll get a range of positive and negative resolutions which will inform future forecasts.
I've already gotten a couple of them live, and am hoping for feedback on the rest:
1. When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?
2. When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-moda
Yes, I recently asked a metaculus mod about this, and they said they're hoping to bring back the ai.metaculus sub-domain eventually. For now, I'm submitting everything to the metaculus main domain.