In EA, there appears to be an interest in "good judgment," sometimes also called "rationality."
There is also interest in forecasting.
My question is, what are the concrete, operationalized differences between skill at forecasting vs having good judgment?
I'm not asking this question facetiously. For example, the parent company/organization of Superforecasting brands itself as the "Good Judgment Project."
But at the same time, when I think about "being good at forecasting" and "having good judgment," I often think of many different qualities. So how can we cleanly separate the two?
Cambridge Dictionary defines judgement as:
Forecasting isn't (at least not directly) about decision-making (cf. instrumental rationality) but just about knowledge and understanding (epistemic rationality).
A bit tangential, but may still be of interest: a recent paper argued that there are two competing standards of good judgement: rationality and reasonableness.