Alexander Gordon-Brown asked this question on the Facebook group:
Not-so-hypothetical question*: If you acquired a large sum of money**, what would you do with it?
In the name of epistemic modesty, I want to start getting opinions on this. There is a boring 'donate it to the best place' option, closely followed by an equally-boring 'save it and donate it later' option. It may well be the case that the boring options win, as I think they do for smaller amounts. However, it seems plausible that some ideas have increasing returns as the amount grows.
For instance, one idea I've floated to myself is effectively running a public giving game of some kind. There are lots and lots of ways this could be structured, with different upsides and downsides. I have some thoughts on this specifically, but I'm really just canvassing for others' thoughts.
*I almost feel bad for spamming the main forum with this. I'm doing it anyway because I'm not going to be the only one with this decision, and it's recurring (for instance, this is the approximately the situation for every finance earning-to-give EA once a year).
**I want to put exact amounts to one side, but lets say between $20,000 and $200,000 for the sake of grounding the discussion.
This question sounded like it would be easier to answer with threading and upvotes! Post your ideas for what a large EA funder might want to do below.
Note: Please post one suggestion per comment so that upvotes can be used as precisely as possible. Thanks!
I don't quite understand what you are asking for here / what you are potentially disagreeing with. What kind of evidence do you expect?
The average stock has the same returns as the index, that's the definition of the index (for some notion of average and some universe of stocks). If you are a good enough predictor, then from your perspective some stocks might have predictably low returns. And in that case you can trivially beat the market.
There is a huge amount of evidence that when there is bad news about an asset's expected future returns, the price of that asset generally drops, raising the expected future returns. But I assume that's not what you are wondering about.