I'm trying to understand the simulation argument. I think Bostrom uses the Indifference Principle (IP) in a weird way. If we become a posthuman civilization that runs many many simulations of our ancestors (meaning us), then how does the IP apply? It only applies when one has no other information to go on. But in this case, we do have some extra information -- crucial information! I.e., we know that we are not in any of the simulations that we have produced. Therefore, we do not have any statistical reason to believe that we are simulated. If every one of us bets that we are not in any of these simulations, all of us will win.
Maybe he meant simulating our ancestors someday would be evidence that advanced posthuman civilization in general simulate their ancestors. But if so, who are these other posthuman civilizations? Where do they exist? Why should we think they exist? It seems that we are alone in the universe, but of course these simulators would exist in some other universe (that would include us, too). Why think that this other universe even exists in the first place?
He offers three possibilities. But obviously we could not go extinct AND simulate trillions and trillions of people while knowing for sure that we are not in any of the simulations we've created. Thank you.