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OpenAI have released a new model. It's claimed to be around as intelligent as GPT-4 but much faster. It can transcribe in real time, and respond to a human conversation in a natural sounding way complete with emotions. It can see the world via your camera, hear it via your microphone, and does a pretty reasonable job at it. 

Their YouTube channel has a bunch of live demos

https://www.youtube.com/@OpenAI

And if you're lucky, you'll already have access to the model. Here's a recording of their announcement event ft. live demonstrations / roll out schedule.

 

Discussion Prompts

1. How much progress has been made relative to expectations and how does this affect which timelines are most likely?
2. How can we use the new capabilities to save time / money / lives?
3. What industries is this going to disrupt? 
 

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1. How much progress has been made relative to expectations and how does this affect which timelines are most likely?

Since the launch of GPT-4, the next relevant data point will be GPT-5. All the rest is ~noise. 

From yesterday's announcement, the most interesting thing is that they are making their newest model free (many people will cancel their paid subscriptions). This seems to indicate that they will launch GPT-5 soon, which will be available only for the paid tier.

Since the launch of GPT-4, the next relevant data point will be GPT-5. All the rest is ~noise. 

Yes, and the longer until this release the more we should update towards longer timelines

Yes, and the longer until this release the more we should update towards longer timelines

The prediction on Metaculus has barely moved for a year.

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