Pablo | v1.13.0Jul 12th 2022 | (+41/-29) | ||
Pablo | v1.12.0Mar 15th 2022 | (+187) | ||
Leo | v1.11.0Jan 6th 2022 | (+115/-159) | ||
Pablo | v1.10.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+31/-25) 'global catastrophe' is correct: it says 'when attempts', so doesn't imply it applies to all global catastrophes | ||
MichaelA | v1.9.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+14/-9) changed global to existential catastrophe, since the former wouldn't necessarily destroy all observers or prevent re-emergence | ||
Pablo | v1.8.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+8/-10) | ||
Pablo | v1.7.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+1) | ||
Pablo | v1.6.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+104) | ||
Pablo | v1.5.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+7/-8) | ||
Pablo | v1.4.0Jun 14th 2021 | (+17/-32) |
Ćirković, Milan M., Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom (2010) Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks, Risk Analysis, vol. 30, pp. 1495–1506.
Milan Ćirković, Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom have developed a model to quantify and correct for this effect (Ćirković, Sandberg & Bostrom 2010).effect.[1]
anthropics | estimation of existential risk | existential risk | global catastrophic risk
Ćirković, Milan M., Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom (2010) Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks, Risk Analysis, vol. 30, pp. 1495–1506.
anthropics | estimation of existential risk | existential risk | global catastrophic risk
Anthropic shadow is the phenomenon involved when attempts to estimate the probability of an existentiala global catastrophe are biased by the fact that they are implicitly conditioning on the existence of human observers.
An event severe enough to destroy all present observers and prevent the emergence of any future observers will necessarily leave no observable traces of its past existence. Such an anthropic effect will bias any attempt to estimate existentialthe risk of human extinction based on observed frequencies, causing an underestimation of actual risk.
Anthropic shadow is the phenomenon involved when attempts to estimate the probability of a globalan existential catastrophe are biased by the fact that they are implicitly conditioning on the existence of human observers.
Milan Ćirković, Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom have developed a model to understandquantify and correct for this effect (Ćirković, Sandberg & Bostrom 2010).
Milan Ćirković, Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom have developed a model to understand and correct for this effect (Ćirković, Sandberg & Bostrom 2010).
anthropics | estimation of existential risk | existential risk | global catastrophic risk
An event severe enough to destroysdestroy all present observers and prevent the emergence of any future observers will necessarily leave no observable traces of its past existence. Such an anthropic effect will bias any attempt to estimate existential risk based on observed frequencies, causing an underestimation of actual risk.
AAn event severe enough global catastrophe thatto destroys all present observers and preventsprevent the emergence of any future observers will necessarily leave no observable traces of its past existence. Such an anthropic effect will bias any attempt to estimate existential risk based on observed frequencies, causing an underestimation of actual risk.
Anthropic shadow is the phenomenon involved when attempts to estimate the
probabilitymagnitude of aglobal catastrophecatastrophic or existential risk are biased by the fact that they are implicitly conditioning on the existence of human observers.