Estimation of existential risk

Estimation of existential risk is the set of methods for assessing the probability of human extinction and other existential catastrophes.

Bostrom, Nick (2002) Existential risks: Analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards, Journal of evolution and technology, vol. 9.
The section “Assessing the Probability of Existential Risks” discusses methods of existential risk estimation.

Goth, Aidan &Aidan, Stephen Clare (2020)& Christian Ruhl (2022) Dr.Professor Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research on improving judgments of existential risk, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021."March 8.

Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing.

Karger, Ezra, Pavel D. Atanasov & Philip Tetlock (2022) Improving Judgmentsjudgments of Existential Risk:existential risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policiesforecasts, questions, explanations, policies, SSRN Electronic Journal.

BibliographyFurther reading

Improving Judgments of Existential Risk: Better Forecasts, Questions, Explanations, Policies

AI forecasting | anthropic shadow | existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting

Goth, Aidan & Stephen Clare (2020) Dr. Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."

https://founderspledge.com/stories/dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunityGoth, Aidan & Stephen Clare (2020) Dr. Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."