Fermi estimate

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BrownHairedEevee (+576) Add synonym - "back of the envelope calculation" and write that Open Phil uses them.
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A Fermi estimate (or back-of-the-envelope calculation, often abbreviated BOTEC) is a rough calculation that aims to be right within about an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting an answer good enough to be useful without putting the large amounts of thought and research needed to attain greater accuracy. Fermi estimates typically approximate an answer by making various simplifying assumptions and decomposing the problem into smaller tractable units. Open Philanthropy and other organizations in the effective altruism community routinely use BOTECs for impact assessment and cause prioritization.

A Fermi estimate or(or back-of-the-envelope calculation (, often abbreviated BOTEC) is a rough calculation whichthat aims to be right within about an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting aan answer good enough to be useful answer without putting the large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate.needed to attain greater accuracy. Open Philanthropy and other organizations in the effective altruism community routinely usesuse BOTECs for impact assessment and cause prioritization.

LessWrong (2021) Fermi estimation, LessWrong Wiki.

Open Philanthropy (2016) U.S. policy, Open Philanthropy.

von Baeyer, Hans Christian (1988) How Fermi would have fixed it, The Sciences, vol. 28, pp. 2–2-4.

Berger, Alexander (2014) Alexander'Alexander’s back of the envelope “importance” calculations, Google DocsGiveWell.

Open Philanthropy (n.d.)(2016) U.S. Policypolicy, Open Philanthropy.

A Fermi estimate or back-of-the-envelope calculation (BOTEC) is a rough calculation which aims to be right within about an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate. Open Philanthropy routinely uses BOTECs for impact assessment and cause prioritization.

Berger, Alexander (2014) Alexander's back of the envelope “importance” calculations, Google Docs.

Open Philanthropy (n.d.) U.S. Policy, Open Philanthropy.

cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | prediction markets | value of information

Muehlhauser, Luke (2013) [[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsEppdvgRisz5xAHG/fermi-Fermi estimates][Fermi estimates]], /LessWrong/LessWrong, April 11.

von Baeyer, Hans Christian (1988) [[doi:10.1002/j.2326-1951.1988.tb03037.x][How Fermi would have fixed it]]it, /The Sciences/The Sciences, vol. 28, pp. 2–4.

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