Forecasting

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MichaelA (+71/-24) Added animal product alternatives as an example of where forecasting is useful (to make it clearer that this isn't just for longtermists; note for example that Metaculus have a GFI-related tournament at the moment) + Added internal links
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Aird, Michael (2020) Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky, LessWrong, May 8.

Kokotajlo, Daniel (2019) Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post, AI Impacts.
An excellent summary of the evidence on good forecasting practices.

Lewis, Gregory (2020) Challenges in evaluating forecaster performance, Effective Altruism Forum, September 8.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2016) Evaluation of some technology forecasts from “The Year 2000”, Open Philanthropy, September.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2021) Superforecasting in a nutshell, Luke Muehlhauser’s Website, February 22.

Vivalt, Evalt (2020) Announcing the Launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform!, Eva Vivalt’s blog, July 7.

Wiblin, Robert (2017) Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you, 80,000 Hours, November 20.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2019) Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Professor Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better, 80,000 Hours, June 28.

Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics. 

Further readingBibliography

Kokotajlo, Daniel (2019) Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post, AI Impacts.

Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness, preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment,alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics. 

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