Long-range forecasting

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https://founderspledge.com/stories/dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunityThis discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."

Further readingBibliography

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.