Long-range forecasting

Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,^[1] although there is no generally agreed-upon definition.

Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,^[1] although there is no agreed-upon definition.

Karnofsky, Holden (2022) The track record of futurists seems … fine, Cold Takes, June 30.

AI forecasting | cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-term future | longtermism

1. ^{^}

   Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.

Goth, Aidan &Aidan, Stephen Clare (2020)& Christian Ruhl (2022) Dr.Professor Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research on improving judgments of existential risk, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021."March 8.

BibliographyFurther reading

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.

Goth, Aidan & Stephen Clare (2020) https://founderspledge.com/stories/dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunityDr. Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."

https://founderspledge.com/stories/dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunityThis discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty."

Further readingBibliography

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.

Further reading

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?