The Precipice

Leo (+24)
Pablo (+399/-105)
Pablo (+11/-8)
Pablo (+910)
Pablo (+544)
Pablo (+119)
Pablo (+84)
Aaron Gertler (+41/-41)
Pablo (+115)

The Precipice characterizes longtermism as an ethic "especially concerned with the impacts of our actions upon the longterm future", and on which "our most important role may be how we shape—or fail to shape—that story" (Ord 2020: 46).story."[1] This characterization may suggest that the book's central thesis is a restatement ofrestates the longtermist thesis. However, while the two are related, they are different. First, according to Ord the case for reducing existential risk does not presuppose longtermism, and can be made even if one rejects that view: asview is rejected. As he writes, "[o]ne doesn’t have to approach existential risk from [a longtermist] direction" since "there is already a strong moral case just from the immediate effects" (Ord 2020: 46).effects."[1] Second, while reducing existential risk is an obvious path to influencing the longtermlong-term future, there may be other ways of exerting such a lasting influence.

BibliographyFurther reading

Aird, Michael (2020) List of things I’ve written or may write that are relevant to The Precipice, Effective Altruism Forum, April 6.

Alexander, Scott (2020) Book Review: The Precipice, Slate Star Codex, April 2.

  1. ^

    Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing, p. 46.

The Precipice characterizes longtermism as an ethic "especially concerned with the impacts of our actions upon the longterm future", and on which "our most important role may be how we shape—or fail to shape—that story" (Ord 2020: 46). This characterization suggestsmay suggest that the book's central thesis is a restatement of the longtermist thesis. However, while the two are related, they are different. First, according to Ord the case for reducing existential risk does not presuppose longtermism, and can be made even if one rejects that view: as he writes, "[o]ne doesn’t have to approach existential risk from [a longtermist] direction" since "there is already a strong moral case just from the immediate effects" (Ord 2020: 46). Second, while reducing existential risk is an obvious path to influencing the longterm future, there may be other ways of exerting such a lasting influence.

Connection to longtermism

The Precipice characterizes longtermism as an ethic "especially concerned with the impacts of our actions upon the longterm future", and on which "our most important role may be how we shape—or fail to shape—that story" (Ord 2020: 46). This characterization suggests that the book's central thesis is a restatement of the longtermist thesis. However, while the two are related, they are different. First, according to Ord the case for reducing existential risk does not presuppose longtermism, and can be made even if one rejects that view: as he writes, "[o]ne doesn’t have to approach existential risk from [a longtermist] direction" since "there is already a strong moral case just from the immediate effects" (Ord 2020: 46). Second, while reducing existential risk is an obvious path to influencing the longterm future, there may be other ways of exerting such a lasting influence.

The book is an extended argument for the conclusion that reducing existential risk is the fundamental challenge of our time. The book's title refers to a period of heightened risk which humanity must navigate safely to realize its long-term potential. Ord dates the beginning of this period to the Trinity test, when the first atomic bomb was detonated.

Wiblin, Robert, Arden Koehler & Keiran Harris (2020) Toby Ord on The Precipice and humanity’s potential futures, 80,000 Hours, March 7.

External links

The Precipice. Official website.

existential risk | existential security | long-term future | Toby Ord | Trinity

The precipice: existential riskPrecipice: Existential Risk and the futureFuture of humanityHumanity is a book by Toby Ord. It was published on 5 March 2020.

The precipice: existential risk and the future of humanity is a book by Toby Ord. It was published on 5 March 2020.