[Draft] Part 7: Increasing the Accuracy of Our Judgments
Trying to accomplish as much good as we can is extremely difficult. We sometimes have to make uncertain and subjective judgement calls about the quality of certain evidence, or the value of a particular variable. This makes it important to use the best reasoning processes we can in order to improve the accuracy of our judgments.
This sequence covers techniques and tools that might help us to increase the quality of our judgment, particularly around forecasting the future.
Organization Spotlight: Epidemic Forecasting
Epidemic Forecasting was created in response to the COVID pandemic by a team of research scholars from the Future of Humanity Institute, with collaborators from Australian National University and Harvard University, as well as volunteer data scientists and developers from Google, GitLab, and other organizations.
They offer tools for estimating the effect of combinations of COVID countermeasures, time-series estimates for COVID reproduction in various places, and a simulator that lets policymakers estimate the long-term effects of particular interventions on the spread of the pandemic in their countries.
Epidemic Forecasting has provided forecasting and policy advice to governments and vaccine companies, and have published in Science.
Photo credit: Marcin Ryczek