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AI forecasting

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AI forecasting includes trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have.

Related entries

AI alignment | AI governance | forecasting

Posts tagged AI forecasting
Most Relevant
2
56Report on Semi-informative Priors for AI timelines (Open Philanthropy)
Tom_Davidson
17d
6
2
40Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
kokotajlod
3mo
6
2
39On AI and Compute
johncrox
2y
12
2
34Atari early
AI Impacts
1y
2
2
28AI Forecasting Resolution Council (Forecasting infrastructure, part 2)
jacobjacob, goldhaber
2y
0
2
28Draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya
4mo
0
2
25Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
kokotajlod
3mo
2
2
23AI Forecasting Question Database (Forecasting infrastructure, part 3)
jacobjacob, goldhaber
2y
1
2
22[Link] "The AI Timelines Scam"
Milan_Griffes
2y
2
2
20Does generality pay? GPT-3 can provide preliminary evidence.
evelynciara
9mo
4
2
18AI Forecasting Dictionary (Forecasting infrastructure, part 1)
jacobjacob, goldhaber
2y
0
1
37Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen
jacobjacob, Ozzie Gooen, vaniver
2y
4
1
28Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
kokotajlod
1mo
2
1
27A conversation with Rohin Shah
AI Impacts
1y
5