Estimation of existential risk


Beard, Simon, Thomas Rowe & James Fox (2020) An analysis and evaluation of methods currently used to quantify the likelihood of existential hazards, Futures, vol. 115, pp. 1–14.

Besiroglu, Tamay (2019) Ragnarök Series — results so far, Metaculus, October 15.

Goth, Aidan & Stephen Clare (2020) Dr. Philip Tetlock’s forecasting research, Founders Pledge, November 27.
This report discusses plans for "work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021."...

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