Fermi estimation

von Baeyer, Hans Christian (1988) How Fermi would have fixed it, The Sciences, vol. 28, pp. 2–2-4.

A Fermi estimate or back-of-the-envelope calculation (BOTEC) is a rough calculation which aims to be right within about an order of magnitude, prioritizing getting a good enough to be useful answer without putting large amounts of thought and research in rather than being extremely accurate. Open Philanthropy routinely uses BOTECs for impact assessment and cause prioritization.

Berger, Alexander (2014) Alexander's back of the envelope “importance” calculations, Google Docs.

Open Philanthropy (n.d.) U.S. Policy, Open Philanthropy.

cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | prediction markets | value of information

Muehlhauser, Luke (2013) [[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsEppdvgRisz5xAHG/fermi-Fermi estimates][Fermi estimates]], /LessWrong/LessWrong, April 11.

von Baeyer, Hans Christian (1988) [[doi:10.1002/j.2326-1951.1988.tb03037.x][How Fermi would have fixed it]]it, /The Sciences/The Sciences, vol. 28, pp. 2–4.

Muehlhauser, Luke (2013) [[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsEppdvgRisz5xAHG/fermi-estimates][Fermi estimates]], /LessWrong/, April 11.

von Baeyer, Hans Christian (1988) [[doi:10.1002/j.2326-1951.1988.tb03037.x][How Fermi would have fixed it]], /The Sciences/, vol. 28, pp. 2–4.

Further readingBibliography

LessWrong (2021) Fermi estimation. , LessWrong Wiki.

Created by MichaelA at 5mo