Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.

Forecasting is a feedback loop. Forecasters make predictions and then when those predictions resolve forecasters get scores. This allows the forecasters to improve and allows everyone else to know who the best forecasters are. In future, we can weight the forecasts of the to better forecasters more heavily.

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Forecasting sites/tools with EA questions

Forecasting projects

Further reading

Aird, Michael (2020) Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky, LessWrong, May 8....

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