Long-range forecasting

Discuss the wiki-tag on this page. Here is the place to ask questions and propose changes.

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Apparently an econ PhD student called Joel Becker will be working on (among other things) "[exploring] the accuracy of long-term forecasts in simulated environments (e.g. real history with blinded participants, games with different time horizons)." (source) He has been given funding from the LTFF. 

I felt like it'd be good to jot that info down here to increase that chance that, if and when Joel has published something on that (or done a talk, been on a podcast, etc.), something about it can be tagged or included in the Bibliography here.

I think this entry/tag should "subsume"/"cover" the epistemic challenge to longtermism. I.e., I think that:

  • Once some kind soul writes text for this entry, that text should eventually include discussion of the epistemic challenge to longtermism
  • If a post is relevant to the epistemic challenge, it should get this tag

(Pablo and I discussed this here.)