Applied to Announcing the Bentham Prize by Pablo at 4mo


Aguirre, Anthony (2016) Predicting the future (of life), Future of Life Institute, January 24.

Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.

Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2. . Official website.

forecasting | Future of Life Institute | prediction markets

I added FLI as a related entry. This is because Anthony Aguirre co-founded both orgs. But the orgs have fairly distinct missions and activities, and I don't think there's any other connection apart from through Aguirre, so maybe that isn't worth mentioning the Related entries.

2Pablo4moYeah, I think the connection is not strong enough to justify inclusion, so I removed it. I don't have strong views on this, though, so feel free to revert my edit if you (Michael or anyone else) think it's definitely worth including.

Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction solicitationsite for soliciting and aggregation engine.aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max Wainwright (Mann 2016; Shelton 2016).

Applied to Metaculus is hiring by Chi at 5mo