75:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 76:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$2a","$2b"],"default"] 77:T887,

I'm a researcher at Forethought; before that, I ran the non-engineering side of the EA Forum (this platform), ran the EA Newsletter, and worked on some other content-related tasks at CEA. [More about the Forum/CEA Online job.]

Selected posts

Background

I finished my undergraduate studies with a double major in mathematics and comparative literature in 2021. I was a research fellow at Rethink Priorities in the summer of 2021 and was then hired by the Events Team at CEA. I later switched to the Online Team. In the past, I've also done some (math) research and worked at Canada/USA Mathcamp.

78:T616,

Jamie is the Courses Project Lead at the Centre for Effective Altruism, leading a team running online programmes that inspire and empower talented people to explore the best ways that they can help others. These courses and fellowships provide structured guidance, information, and support to help people take tailored next steps that set them up for high impact.

Jamie is also President of the board at Leaf, an independent nonprofit that supports exceptional teenagers to explore how they can best save lives, help others, or change the course of history; Leaf also runs the Non-Trivial brand. (Most of the hard work is being done by the wonderful Jonah Boucher though!)

Jamie previously worked as a teacher, as a researcher at the think tank Sentience Institute, as co-founder and researcher at Animal Advocacy Careers (which helps people to maximise their positive impact for animals), and as a grantmaker at Macroscopic Ventures (focused on s-risks) and the Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund.

79:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

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I design programs, convenings, and experimental formats for impact-focused communities — currently as Programs & Initiatives Lead at Effective Altruism France, and through grant-funded work for biosecurity professionals.

With a background in biomedical engineering, I have worked across biosecurity, AI governance, and community building, previously at the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance (via the Talos Fellowship) and as Co-Director of Effective Altruism Switzerland.

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Someone suggested I name this post \"What We Owe The Community\": I think it's a great title, but I didn't dare use it...

Views and mistakes my own.

EDIT: I'd like to emphasize the choice of the word \"affiliation\" as opposed to\"identity\" as I do think it's important not to make it about identity.

What I believe

I think owning our EA affiliation—how we are inspired by the movement and the community—is net positive for the world and..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"3h8mJozzn9RDwm56r","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":116,"description":"

The social and intellectual movements tag applies to posts that discuss how other social and intellectual movements relate to effective altruism. For example, they might discuss:

Building alliances with them
What we can learn from them
Ways in which we should oppose them

Related entries

building effective altruism |..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"JgoXsGHzcveEMNdJ8","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":7835,"description":"

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Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"y4b45yXXrFJpPmx7d","core":false,"name":"Opinion","slug":"opinion","tagRel":{"_id":"kR957sidWuh9TmRrW","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2139,"description":"

Apply this topic to posts that express a personal opinion.

Related entries

community experiences | community

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The post is about EA a..."}]},{"_id":"kACcdhLDdWb9ZPG9L","slug":"why-you-can-justify-almost-anything-using-historical-social","title":"Why you can justify almost anything using historical social movements","url":null,"baseScore":288,"voteCount":120,"commentCount":12,"postedAt":"2025-04-24T10:55:32.275Z","curatedDate":"2025-05-14T14:58:41.726Z","frontpageDate":"2025-04-24T12:58:32.430Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://res.cloudinary.com/cea/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/mirroredImages/kACcdhLDdWb9ZPG9L/bllj7lef1o8lsc8t75dc","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2025-05-19T14:55:47.252Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"2Ebo99wmRPWpzF7si","slug":"jamesoez","displayName":"JamesÖz 🔸","username":"JamesOz","createdAt":"2020-10-05T23:14:31.764Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":6729,"jobTitle":"","organization":"Coefficient Giving ","postCount":41,"commentCount":304,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
I do farm animal welfare grantmaking at Coefficient Giving. I was previously doing social movement and protest-related research at Social Change Lab, an EA-aligned research organisation I've founded.
Previously, I completed the 2021 Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program. Before that, I was on the Strategy team at Extinction Rebellion UK, working on movement-building for animal advocacy and climate change.
My blog (often EA related content)
See a bit more about me here.
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[Cross-posted from my Substack here]
If you spend time with people trying to change the world, you’ll come to an interesting conundrum: Various advocacy groups reference previous successful social movements as to why their chosen strategy is the most important one. Yet, these groups often follow wildly different strategies from each other to achieve social change. So, which one of them is r..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"hC88x9hNZ7cJYLu8q","core":false,"name":"History","slug":"history","tagRel":{"_id":"GMcCjQ7FtuWgAgcRP","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":206,"description":"
The history tag is for posts that are strongly focused on historical events or trends (rather than just mentioning these things briefly), or that discuss or make heavy use of historical research methods.
Further reading
Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"uCPFdnpD6e4CCX8nC","core":false,"name":"Research methods","slug":"research-methods","tagRel":{"_id":"LupkhRieyeRT8QhFB","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":264,"description":"
Use the research methods tag for posts about how to conduct better research.
The tag can also be used for posts that present their research in such an exemplary way that a reader could learn about effective research methods simply by reading them.
For posts about improving research methods done in science, use the..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"pNqnyvvDibsGm5B26","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7835,"description":"
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Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"qcQXDXBW8gYHzYngc","core":false,"name":"Effective altruism culture","slug":"effective-altruism-culture","tagRel":{"_id":"LCABSNBESxi78K8AJ","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":208,"description":"
Effective altruism culture is the set of norms and beliefs of the effective altruism community.
Related entries
building effective altruism |..."},{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"XEeKCGgu8dcjN5K5i","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2705,"description":"
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- Building alliances with them
- What we can learn from them
- Ways in which we should oppose them
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Head of Lightcone Infrastructure. Wrote the forum software that the EA Forum is based on. I've historically been one of the most active and highest karma commenters on the forum. I no longer post or comment here, and recommend the same to others.

My best guess is EA at large is causing large harm for the world, and there is no leadership or accountability in-place to fix it. Many of the principles are important, but I don't think this specific community embodies these principles very much and often actively sabotages them.
You can find me on LessWrong or Twitter.
"},"contents":{"wordCount":2372,"htmlHighlight":"
Epistemic status: This is a pretty detailed hypothesis that I think overall doesn’t add up to more than 50% of my probability mass on explaining datapoints like FTX, Leverage Research, the LaSota crew etc., but is still my leading guess for what is going on. I might also be really confused about the whole topic.
Since the FTX explosion, I’ve been thinking a lot about what caused FTX and, relatedly, what caused other similarly crazy- or immoral-seeming groups of people in connecti..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"doAxFNMmB7qMbJsDR","core":false,"name":"Criticism of the effective altruism community","slug":"criticism-of-the-effective-altruism-community","tagRel":{"_id":"aJr2MoNnmHX8yfmhH","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":281,"description":"
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- The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"LRLb252ZaS6ty4MH6","core":false,"name":"Models","slug":"models","tagRel":{"_id":"rbZW7RrFnt4ppNuWL","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":151,"description":"
  A model is a simplified representation of some aspect of the world, which can be more easily analyzed than the world itself. When assessing and assimilating evidence, it will often be necessary to construct models.
  \n
  For instance, economists who are interested in predicting how people will behave often analyze mod..."},{"_id":"c7mLGCpCom8LvyiSH","core":false,"name":"EA Strategy Fortnight","slug":"ea-strategy-fortnight","tagRel":{"_id":"B5GodzRyCSbdaRz6T","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":43,"description":"
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  ..."},{"_id":"Ch7qzBxb6n6ik7m5Z","core":false,"name":"FTX collapse","slug":"ftx-collapse","tagRel":{"_id":"Xytmp8b2DNr3WGQKb","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":250,"description":"
  FTX collapse refers to the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX in 2022. The FTX exchange was founded in 2019 by Sam Bankman-Fried and Gary Wang..."},{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"EjZqkBu2BK7PD5G5D","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":116,"description":"
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  - Building alliances with them
  - What we can learn from them
  - Ways in which we should oppose them
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  Arthur has been engaged with EA since before the movement settled on a name, and reoriented from academics/medicine toward supporting highly impactful work. He has since developed operations skills by working with EA-affiliated organizations and in the private sector. Alongside EA interests, Arthur finds inspiration in nerdy art about heroes trying to save the universe.
  "},"contents":{"wordCount":3551,"htmlHighlight":"
  TL;DR: When I say “General EA” I am referring to the cluster including the term “effective altruism,” the idea of “big-tent EA,” as well as branding and support of those ideas. This post is a response in opposition to many calls for renaming EA or backing away from an umbrella movement. I make some strategic recommendations and take something of a deep dive using my own personal history/cause prioritization as a case study for why “General EA” works (longpost is long, so there's TL;D..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"QvvdayWWSvmeBCtqZ","core":false,"name":"Community experiences","slug":"community-experiences","tagRel":{"_id":"wHffoSCtL79tHD946","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":394,"description":"
  The community experiences tag covers posts about members of the EA community recounting their own or others' experiences with the EA movement - such as origin stories, lessons learnt or experiences participating in an event, job, internship or community.
  \n
  Related entries
  \n
  ..."},{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"aKrFQPwyBrrkCbNhT","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7466,"description":"
  The community topic covers posts about the effective altruism community, as well as applying EA in one's personal life. The tag also applies to posts about the Forum itself, since this is a community space. You should use the community tag if one of the following things is true:
  The post is about EA a..."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"GTXSbrSLNtG3MdDkm","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7835,"description":"
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  Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."},{"_id":"xCgaGHaEYg69KTTkR","core":false,"name":"Effective altruism in the media","slug":"effective-altruism-in-the-media","tagRel":{"_id":"TERFgxEtAqwMnsjEY","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":229,"description":"
  The effective altruism in the media tag covers portrayals of effective altruism in the media, as well as meta-discussions about how to best represent the movement when talking to journalists or publishing one's own work for a public audience.
  Further reading
  Duda, Roman (2015)..."},{"_id":"Ap3maZNsJw2McNNQy","core":false,"name":"Effective altruism messaging","slug":"effective-altruism-messaging","tagRel":{"_id":"YvZkoDhqeg2MzFmcm","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":399,"description":"
  The effective altruism messaging tag applies to posts that discuss ways to convey EA-related information to various audiences (e.g. via framing or graphic design).
  Related entries
  documentaries | ..."},{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"vQjfKXodpzoCPGYmx","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":116,"description":"
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  Building alliances with them
  What we can learn from them
  Ways in which we should oppose them
  Further reading..."}]},{"_id":"oTJ5vMNwdWiHj2iKL","slug":"humanities-research-ideas-for-longtermists","title":"Humanities Research Ideas for Longtermists","url":null,"baseScore":154,"voteCount":76,"commentCount":13,"postedAt":"2021-06-09T04:39:40.873Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-06-09T11:53:19.445Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"https://i.ibb.co/ygVLF0j/RP-logo-with-text.png","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-01-28T18:12:50.073Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"SuPnfB9qqKWsucNzm","slug":"lizka","displayName":"Lizka","username":"Lizka","createdAt":"2019-11-06T06:22:18.538Z","profileImageId":"Profile/llwmfw62hcsq2vuk1n7g","karma":18075,"jobTitle":"Researcher","organization":"Forethought","postCount":154,"commentCount":580,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$77"},"contents":{"wordCount":3766,"htmlHighlight":"
  Summary
  \n
  This post lists 10 longtermism-relevant project ideas for people with humanities interests or backgrounds. Most of these ideas are for research projects, but some are for summaries, new outreach content, etc. (See below for what I mean by “humanities.”)
  \n
  The ideas, in brief:
  \n
  \n
  Study future-oriented beliefs in certain religions or groups
  \n
  Study the ways in which incidental qualities become essential to institutions
  \n
  Explore fiction as a tool fo..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"fzHn542Wn3nYatnpn","core":false,"name":"Religion","slug":"religion","tagRel":{"_id":"3Yrfy8o89s8sCTxbf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":148,"description":"
  The religion tag covers posts about the intersection between religion and effective altruism.
  Further reading
  Crimmins, James E. (2013) Religious utilitarians, in James E. Crimmins (ed.) The Bloomsbury Encyclop..."},{"_id":"5pdNux8dFm2uBDpHE","core":false,"name":"Flourishing futures","slug":"flourishing-futures","tagRel":{"_id":"5hTkjhzvfcSWn856T","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":64,"description":"
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  Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"vfJPxpEFQL76SDL6N","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":116,"description":"
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  [Shorter version here]
  Summary and Introduction:
  Future generations, non-human animals, and other voiceless groups are harmfully neglected in today’s policy making. What strategies for changing this can advocates of neglected groups learn from times when excluded groups gained political protections?
  People in this forum's community have..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"
  [Edit: Shorter version here.]
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  Future generations, non-human animals, and other voiceless groups are harmfully neglected in today’s policy making. What strategies for changing this can advocates...","tags":[{"_id":"X3KB4vCDhbRrC4qTP","core":false,"name":"Forum Prize","slug":"forum-prize","tagRel":{"_id":"8ijquLcWNcgRYaNrf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":136,"description":"
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  Thanks to Luca Righetti, Elise Bohan, Fin Moorhouse, Max Daniel, Konrad Seifert and Maxime Stauffer for their valuable comments and thoughts on the draft and future steps. Thanks to Owen for telling me to turn this idea into a post!
  
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  Throughout this post, I will explore some overlaps between sustainability (focusing on Sustainable Development Goals) and longtermism (focusing on Global Catastrophic Risks mitigation)..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"qHXSQkqM7ynEc5qx9","core":false,"name":"Global governance","slug":"global-governance","tagRel":{"_id":"D8ZhGtckaft9dSkCh","voteType":null,"baseScore":7},"postCount":167,"description":"
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  I used to work as a software developer at Affirm.
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  James Özden and Sam Glover at Social Change Lab wrote a literature review on protest outcomes^[1] as part of a broader investigation..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"JiBxFepx9uHAqaePv","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":2705,"description":"
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  Ways in which we should oppose them
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  Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."}]},{"_id":"ATpxEPwCQWQAFf4XX","slug":"key-lessons-from-social-movement-history","title":"Key Lessons From Social Movement History","url":"https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/blog/key-lessons-from-social-movement-history","baseScore":126,"voteCount":47,"commentCount":24,"postedAt":"2021-06-30T17:05:38.684Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2021-06-30T19:31:22.053Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2021-07-07T06:40:46.508Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"Yyw6pJw7mgq4YtNsS","slug":"jamie_harris","displayName":"Jamie_Harris","username":"Jamie_Harris","createdAt":"2017-09-12T17:37:49.276Z","profileImageId":"Profile/rlutixuzwya8fs6chdfm","karma":3681,"jobTitle":"Courses Project Lead","organization":"Centre for Effective Altruism","postCount":48,"commentCount":424,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"$78"},"contents":{"wordCount":3309,"htmlHighlight":"
  In this post I summarize key strategic implications from Sentience Institute's five completed social movement case studies and several additional case studies by other researchers, looking for correlations and convergent findings across the different movements and contexts. From this evidence, I argue that the farmed animal movement should take steps to avoid unintended consequences from incremental tactics; use a more diverse range of institutional tactics; use fewer individual diet cha..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"rwXxjhRgp4ZKgYE78","core":false,"name":"Sentience Institute","slug":"sentience-institute","tagRel":{"_id":"2zkgTnnDTo6EDMtSa","voteType":null,"baseScore":9},"postCount":40,"description":"
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  Over 60 billion land-dwelling animals are killed each year. The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve \"intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering\"...."},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"onAE4FsTXEnnaQbnf","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7835,"description":"
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  Building alliances with them
  What we can learn from them
  Ways in which we should oppose them
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  Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"A7Kgc9sMmRcXkWK7S","core":false,"name":"Field-building","slug":"field-building","tagRel":{"_id":"yZhxGmxWcMP9T6eQ6","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":240,"description":"
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  Previously, I completed the 2021 Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program. Before that, I was on the Strategy team at Extinction Rebellion UK, working on movement-building for animal advocacy and climate change.
  My blog (often EA related content)
  See a bit more about me here.
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  What I want this post to achieve: My main goal with this post is to start a discussion about the effectiveness of different forms of political advocacy. Specifically, whether, and how, social movement concepts such as nonviolent protest should be used for EA causes.
  Disclaimer and epistemic certainty: This is a somewhat speculative post and I’m not fully confident on some of the numbers used for the cost-effectiveness estimates. I’ve been work..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"psBzwdY8ipfCeExJ7","core":true,"name":"Cause prioritization","slug":"cause-prioritization","tagRel":{"_id":"29K6Bu9mKhbBXbhHL","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4088,"description":"
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  Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"BfF4Kyf2copdXFzw8","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":116,"description":"
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  Ways in which we should oppose them
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  Less-discussed causes are causes that receive comparatively less attention within the effective altruism community. Posts tagged with this topic can suggest, consider, or present a cause or intervention. This is independent of the quality of the suggestion, the community consensus about it, or the level of specificity.
  Fu..."}]},{"_id":"yYiLv7rCHMNP98dZ5","slug":"can-my-self-worth-compare-to-my-instrumental-value","title":"Can my self-worth compare to my instrumental value?","url":null,"baseScore":122,"voteCount":63,"commentCount":31,"postedAt":"2020-10-11T07:32:35.995Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2020-10-11T09:57:52.443Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2024-09-08T15:19:41.250Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"8YjRiLnBoCmrXWynM","slug":"c-tilli","displayName":"C Tilli","username":"C Tilli","createdAt":"2020-06-08T17:31:31.604Z","profileImageId":null,"karma":642,"jobTitle":null,"organization":null,"postCount":9,"commentCount":50,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
  Working for Cooperative AI Foundation. I have a background in engineering and entrepreneurship and have previously been running a small non-profit focused on prevention of antibiotic resistance and worked for EA Sweden. Received an EA Infrastructure grant for cause exploration in meta-science during 2021-22.
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  A personal reflection on how my experience of EA is similar to my experience of religious faith in that it provides a sense of purpose and belonging, but that I miss the assurance of my own intrinsic value and how that can make it difficult to maintain a stable sense of self-worth.
  Note: I realize that my experience of religion and faith is probably different from that of a lot of other people. My aim is not to get into a discussion of what religion does right or wrong, espe..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"fzHn542Wn3nYatnpn","core":false,"name":"Religion","slug":"religion","tagRel":{"_id":"2QKFuueADpe5jYLA4","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":148,"description":"
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  \n
  Related entries
  \n
  community experiences |..."},{"_id":"tFS8r3BE3X6ZuzPdk","core":false,"name":"Demandingness of morality","slug":"demandingness-of-morality","tagRel":{"_id":"Ho4P4HzNjRh6AaQKs","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":53,"description":"
  The demandingness of morality is the cost to the agent of complying with moral demands. According to some authors, there is a limit to how much morality can demand from us, and any moral theory or principle that exceeds this limit can for that reason be rejected.
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  Barry, Christian & Holly Lawford..."},{"_id":"uuENf8tJ33Qf3Keq2","core":false,"name":"Social and intellectual movements","slug":"social-and-intellectual-movements","tagRel":{"_id":"JL5WgmxEdBxtgEwMo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":116,"description":"
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  What we can learn from them
  Ways in which we should oppose them
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  Intrinsic value (sometimes called terminal value) is the value something has for its own sake. Instrumental value, by contrast, is the value something has by virtue of its effects on other things.
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  Author, The Roots of Progress (rootsofprogress.org)
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  I'm trying to get to the crux of the differences between the progress studies (PS) and the EA / existential risk (XR) communities. I'd love input from you all on my questions below.
  The road trip metaphor
  Let me set up a metaphor to frame the issue:
  Picture all of humanity in a car, traveling down the highway of progress. Both PS and EA/XR agree that the trip is good, and that as long as we don't crash, faster would be better. But:
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  What we can learn from them
  Ways in which we should oppose them
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  ..."},{"_id":"GQkyZbfZvxHYYhurT","core":false,"name":"Progress studies","slug":"progress-studies","tagRel":{"_id":"LyTxgZ2rrEDfmXFtx","voteType":null,"baseScore":19},"postCount":80,"description":"
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  The scientific progress tag is for posts about:
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  Strategies for changing the rate of progress in different areas
  General information related to progress (e.g. factors that tend to encourage it)
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  An existential risk is a risk that threatens the destruction of the long-term potential of life.^[1] An existential risk could threaten the..."},{"_id":"sWcuTyTB5dP3nas2t","core":true,"name":"Global health & development","slug":"global-health-and-development","tagRel":{"_id":"45cG92duNq2faabQE","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":4846,"description":"
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  Status: Time-capped analysis.
  \n
  Introduction.
  \n
  I look at two social movements which I think failed in their time: the Spanish Enlightenment (1750-1850), and the General Semantics movement (1938-2003). The first one is more similar to the effective altruism community, and the second one is more similar to the rationality community.
  \n
  Example 1: Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail (1750-1850)?
  \n
  Why do I care about this movement?..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"3BdDHBNGsPZsXWyoT","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7835,"description":"
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  What we can learn from them
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  The history tag is for posts that are strongly focused on historical events or trends (rather than just mentioning these things briefly), or that discuss or make heavy use of historical research methods.
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  Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"Y7DckZtXjsddZykpa","core":false,"name":"Movement collapse","slug":"movement-collapse","tagRel":{"_id":"KXFsrpwcw4FPj2MvE","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":20,"description":"
  Movement collapse is the process through which social or intellectual movements, including the effective altruism movement, can become extinct or lose most of t..."}]},{"_id":"aWyFsYZuxkrraQdYk","slug":"bibliography-of-ea-writings-about-fields-and-movements-of","title":"Bibliography of EA writings about fields and movements of interest to EA","url":null,"baseScore":98,"voteCount":34,"commentCount":15,"postedAt":"2022-02-21T15:11:51.905Z","curatedDate":null,"frontpageDate":"2022-02-22T05:58:46.269Z","draft":false,"question":false,"isEvent":false,"groupId":null,"sticky":false,"eventImageId":null,"socialPreview":null,"socialPreviewImageAutoUrl":"","readTimeMinutesOverride":null,"collabEditorDialogue":false,"disableRecommendation":false,"authorIsUnreviewed":false,"lastCommentedAt":"2022-06-01T16:01:26.359Z","sharingSettings":null,"shortform":false,"startTime":null,"onlineEvent":false,"googleLocation":null,"user":{"_id":"BkbwT5TzSj4aRxJMN","slug":"pablo_stafforini","displayName":"Pablo","username":"Pablo_Stafforini","createdAt":"2014-08-06T01:08:45.972Z","profileImageId":"Profile/o8mnlsal9pr4tzjw4kys","karma":11328,"jobTitle":"AI Enablement Manager","organization":"Epoch AI","postCount":46,"commentCount":1243,"deleted":false,"biographyHtml":"
  I am AI Enablement Manager at Epoch AI.
  After living nomadically for many years, I recently moved back to my native Buenos Aires. Feel free to get in touch if you are visiting BA and would like to grab a coffee or need a place to stay.
  Every post, comment, or wiki edit I authored is hereby licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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  Latest update: 22 April 2024
  Years ago, I compiled a list of writings by members of the EA community focused on fields and movements of interest to EA. The list seems to have spread organically and every couple of months someone messages me with comments or questions about it. Although the list is probably incomplete, it seems sufficiently comprehensive to justify publication on the EA Forum. Please let me know, by contacting me o..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"RcuE86WhJQguD2whE","core":false,"name":"Communities adjacent to effective altruism","slug":"communities-adjacent-to-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"fLKqmkNcwyZ9kKkq9","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":18,"description":"
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  Ways in which we should oppose them
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  Aird, Michael (2021)..."},{"_id":"A7Kgc9sMmRcXkWK7S","core":false,"name":"Field-building","slug":"field-building","tagRel":{"_id":"gEDbsLpGgZbQcAKth","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":240,"description":"
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  The collections and resources topic covers posts containing lists of EA-related resources. These could be external links or curated Forum content.
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  Aird, Michael (2020) Sugg..."},{"_id":"qLWq9x58siAFz39Yp","core":false,"name":"Abortion","slug":"abortion-1","tagRel":{"_id":"yasMeQT57shx2qQHE","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":8,"description":""},{"_id":"EHLmbEmJ2Qd5WfwTb","core":true,"name":"Building effective altruism","slug":"building-effective-altruism","tagRel":{"_id":"jfXNHyTQwKmDbnBew","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":7835,"description":"
  Building effective altruism refers to the family of interventions aimed at growing, shaping, or otherwise improving effective altruism as a practical and intellectual community.
  Examples of building effective altruism include starting..."}]}],"initialLimit":15,"loadMoreLimit":50}]]}]}]

What I believe

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Summary

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External links

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[Shorter version here]

Summary and Introduction:

[Edit: Shorter version here.]

Introduction and Summary:

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Improving policy

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Improving policy

Funding

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The road trip metaphor

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Introduction.

Example 1: Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail (1750-1850)?

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Further reading

Further reading