Topics in Need of Work
In the context of EA, Shapley values are a method for assigning credit for the impact of an intervention to each of a set of actors collaborating to make it happen. The concept of a Shapley value comes from cooperative game theory, where it is a general solution to the problem of distributing gains from cooperation. In impact assessment, it is often compared...
The fragile world hypothesis is the hypothesis that 'if technological development continues indefinitely, systemic fragility will increase to the point that the possibility of a shock sufficient for complete collapse approaches certainty.'[1]
Closely related to the concept of a 'global polycrisis':
...Established concepts, such as “systemic risk” (Renn 2016; Renn
Charity Entrepreneurship's Research Training Program aims to train aspiring researchers to rapidly produce high-quality decision-relevant research.
Related entries
Ambitious Impact | Research | Cause prioritization | Cause candidates
The Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest was a 2023 competition organized to surface novel considerations that could influence Open Philanthropy’s views on AI timelines and AI risk. A total of $225,000 in prize money was awarded across six winning entries. The contest served as the formal successor to a 2022 preannouncement and as a spiritual successor to...
The Unjournal is an organisation that works to organize and fund public journal-independent feedback, rating, and evaluation of hosted papers and dynamically-presented research projects. Their initial focus is on quantitative work that informs global priorities, especially in economics, policy, and social science. They aim to encourage better research by making...
Value erosion refers to a process by which competitive dynamics could eventually lead to "the proliferation of forms of life (countries, companies, autonomous AIs) which lock-in bad values", if those forms of life outcompete others (Dafoe, 2020).
Further reading
Dafoe, Allan (2019) Value erosion for FHI July 2019, July 25.
Bostrom, Nick (2004) The...
When human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) is a consideration for both AI risk interventions and other interventions. For example, one's AI timelines affect how much to discount interventions that have a delayed effect.
Related entries
Benchmarks are tests which enable us to measure the progress of AI capabilities, and test for characteristics which might pose safety risks.
Further reading
BASALT: A Benchmark for Learning from Human Feedback - AI Alignment Forum
Misaligned Powerseeking — SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program | Summer 2022
Proliferation is the spread of weapons, technologies, or things useful in producing weapons or technologies to actors who did not previously have those things. The term "proliferation" is especially associated with the spread of weapons of mass destruction - such as nuclear weapons - or of technologies or materials useful in producing them. The term diffusion...
Guesstimate is a web-based spreadsheet tool built to focus on uncertainty. It's useful for fermi estimates and collaborative modelling.
External links
Related Entries
Tools for Collaborative Truth Seeking | Squiggle | QURI
Tutorial
Video tutorial available here, text tutorial below.
Why use guesstimate?
Guesstimate...
Topic Voting Activity
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More details in the announcement post.
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A week for discussing funding strategy, broadly construed.
A two-long series of events on the EA Forum, aimed at causing more and better donations, and reaching new audiences.
| Dates | Nov 10-16 | Nov 17-23 | Nov 24-Dec 7 | Dec 8-14 | Dec 15-EOY |
| Event | Funding Strategy Week | Marginal Funding Week | Donation Election
| ‘Why I donate’ week | Donation Celebration Banner
|
More details in the announcement post.
A two-long series of events on the EA Forum, aimed at causing more and better donations, and reaching new audiences.
| Dates | Nov 10-16 | Nov 17-23 | Nov 24-Dec 7 | Dec 8-14 | Dec 15-EOY |
| Event | Funding Strategy Week | Marginal Funding Week | Donation Election
|
The Essays on Longtermism Competition (EoL Competition) iswas an essay contest on the Effective Altruism Forum, co-organized by the Forum team and the editors of Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future (Oxford University Press, 2025).
The competition encouragesencouraged rigorous philosophical engagement with longtermism—the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. Participants arewere invited to submit essays in response to a chapter, or (substantiated) theme from the collection before October 20, 2025 (anywhere on earth).
NOTE: THE DEADLINE FOR THE COMPETITION HAS NOW PASSED. YOU CAN STILL SUBMIT ESSAYS WITH THE TAG, AND THEY WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A BEST-OF SEQUENCE, BUT WON'T BE ELIGIBLE FOR THE PRIZE.
This year's Draft Amnesty Week will run from February 24th to March 2nd.2nd, and, from October 13th - 19th. Draft Amnesty is an event where Forum users can post scrappy, draft-y, or incomplete posts with impunity.
The Essays on Longtermism Competition (EoL Competition) is an essay contest on the Effective Altruism Forum, co-organized by the Forum team and the editors of Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future (Oxford University Press, 2025).
The competition encourages rigorous philosophical engagement with longtermism—the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. Participants are invited to submit essays in response to a chapter, argument, or (substantiated) theme from the collection before October 20, 2025 (anywhere on earth).
Greaves, Hilary & MacAskill, William (2021). The Case for Strong Longtermism.
Ord, Toby (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
Provisional tag — moderators may want to change the name, or delete this if it doesn't seem separate enough from the "Forecasting" tag. Could also be "betting on beliefs", though that still isn't very specific.
Some people use betting as a way to signal the strength of their views; they might offer a bet as a way to identify a crux in a debate, or challenge a critic they view as insincere.
This tag tracks posts where people make public bets on their beliefs (or discuss the practice of doing so).
Provisional tag — moderators may want to change the name, or delete this if it doesn't seem separate enough from the "Forecasting" tag. Could also be "betting on beliefs", though that still isn't very specific.
Some people use betting as a way to signal the strength of their views; they might offer a bet as a way to identify a crux in a debate, or challenge a critic they view as insincere.
This tag tracks posts where people make public bets on their beliefs (or discuss the practice of doing so).
Effective Altruism Forum (2025). Announcing: The Essays on Longtermism Competition.Competition.
The Essays on Longtermism Competition (EoL Competition) is an essay contest on the Effective Altruism Forum, co-organized by the Forum team and the editors of Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future (Oxford University Press, 2025). The competition encourages rigorous philosophical engagement with longtermism—the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. Participants are invited to submit essays in response to a chapter, argument, or theme from the collection before October 20, 2025 (anywhere on earth).
Further reading
Barrett, Jacob; Greaves, Hilary; Thorstad, David (eds.) (2025). Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future. Oxford University Press.
Greaves, Hilary & MacAskill, William (2021). The Case for Strong Longtermism.
Ord, Toby (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
Effective Altruism Forum (2025). Announcing: The Essays on Longtermism Competition.
Related entries
longtermism | forecasting | moral philosophy | Events on the EA Forum | prizes and contests
NOTE: THE DEADLINE FOR THE COMPETITION HAS NOW PASSED. YOU CAN STILL SUBMIT ESSAYS WITH THE TAG, AND THEY WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A BEST-OF SEQUENCE, BUT WON'T BE ELIGIBLE FOR THE PRIZE.
The Essays on Longtermism Competition (EoL Competition) was an essay contest on the Effective Altruism Forum, co-organized by the Forum team and the editors of Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future (Oxford University Press, 2025).
The competition encouraged rigorous philosophical engagement with longtermism—the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. Participants were invited to submit essays in response to a chapter, or (substantiated) theme from the collection before October 20, 2025 (anywhere on earth).
Further reading
Barrett, Jacob; Greaves, Hilary; Thorstad, David (eds.) (2025). Essays on Longtermism: Present Action for the Distant Future. Oxford University Press....
The 10% Pledge is a public, non-binding commitment to donate at least 10% of one’s income each year to the most cost-effective charities or funding opportunities one can identify. It is administered by Giving What We Can (GWWC) and serves both as a personal commitment device and as a norm-setting tool within the effective altruism community.tool.
The tag was rejected because it hasn’t yet been applied to at least three posts by different authors.