List of Tools for Collaborative Truth Seeking

Plans: Each tool will have a description, a link to a video / text tutorial, and a link to a twitter thread. 

Infinite Canvases: a collection of collaborative visual modelling apps where you can lay out ideas on an infinite canvas. 

Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentation, wiki pageLoomWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPLoomWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassForum post (WIP)WIPN/AWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
Squiggle ComponentsOfficial documentationN/AWIPN/A
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPLoomWIP
LoomForum post (WIP)Basic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQLoomWIP
Causal.appForum post (WIP)Quickstart WIP
Elicit YoutubeWIP
Confido   

Guesstimate: a tool for spreadsheet or logic model creation with uncertainty. Main wiki page

Google Sheets: a collaborative spreadsheet creator integrated with google drive/docs.

Infinite Canvases: a platform for buildingcollection of collaborative visual modelling apps; several such apps already available.where you can lay out ideas on an infinite canvas. 

Pastcasting (sage)Sage): A forecasting platform using resolved questions from other sites (e.g. Metaculus) to shorten the feedback loop and practice forecasting, particularly over long time horizons.

Pastcasting (sage): A forecasting platform using resolved questions from other sites (e.g. Metaculus) to shorten the feedback loop and practice forecasting, particularly over long time horizons.

Vodle: A collective decision making platform where participants can vote on questions using a voting system that is fairer than majority voting and more efficient than traditional consensus procedures.

Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentation, wiki pageLoomWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
Squiggle ComponentsOfficial documentationN/AWIP
Google SheetsWIPWIPWIP
Google DrawingWIPWIPWIP
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
LoomForum post (WIP)Basic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQWIPWIP
VodleOfficial tutorialWIPWIP

Table ofExternal links

Excalidraw: a collaborative shared whiteboard for text and sketching. Good for logic models.models.

Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentation, wiki pageWIPWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassSelf-explanatoryForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)WIPLoomWIP
Squiggle ComponentsOfficial documentationWIPN/AWIP
Google SheetsWIPWIPWIP
Google DrawingWIPWIPWIP
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
LoomForum post (WIP)Basic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQWIPWIP

Sensemaking (WIP as of 221017):  a sensemaking/model building tool based on GPT-aided text interface.

Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentationWIPWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassSelf-explanatoryWIPWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Squiggle ComponentsOfficial documentationWIPWIP
Google SheetsWIPWIPWIP
Google DrawingWIPWIPWIP
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Infinite Canvas   
Sensemaking  Original
LoomForum post (WIP)Basic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQWIPWIP

Guesstimate: tool for spreadsheet or logic model creation with uncertainty. Main wiki page. Video tutorial

Loom: screen capture and audio/video recording app with easy sharing. Example:Video summary of an EA forum post. Video tutorial.

Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentationWIPWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassSelf-explanatoryWIPWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Squiggle ComponentsOfficial documentationWIPWIP
Google SheetsWIPWIPWIP
Google DrawingWIPWIPWIP
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Infinite Canvas   
Sensemaking  Original
LoomWIPForum post (WIP)Basic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQWIPWIP

Manifold markets: a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation. Main wiki page.

Plans: Each tool will have a description, a link to a video / text tutorial, and a link to a twitter thread. N.B table version at bottom of page.

Manifold: a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation. Main forumwiki page.

Metaculus: forecast and view forecasts on a wide range of topics. Main forumwiki page.

Guesstimate: tool for spreadsheet or logic model creation with uncertainty. Main Forum Pagewiki page. Video tutorial

Squiggle: a coding language for generating precise probability distributions, estimates of variables over time, and similar tasks. Main forumwiki page

Loom: screen capture and audio/video recording app with easy sharing. Example: Video summary of an EA forum post . Video tutorial.

Pol.is: A surveying platform in which participants submit short text statements, or comments, (<140 characters) which are then sent out semi-randomly to other participants to vote on by clicking agree, disagree or pass.Main forum page

manifold | metaculus | guesstimate | fermi estimate | cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | prediction markets

Loom: screen capture and audio/video recording app with easy sharing

  1. sharing. Example: Video summary of an EA forum post 
  2. Example: A walkthrough of an AI paper
Name of ToolText tutorialVideo TutorialTwitter Thread
Manifold MarketsOfficial documentationWIPWIP
MetaculusOfficial tutorialsWIPWIP
Visualisation of Probability MassSelf-explanatoryWIPWIP
Click and Drag Probability ElicitationForum post (WIP)WIPLoomWIP
GuesstimateForum post (WIP)LoomWIP
SquiggleForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Squiggle Components Official documentationWIPWIP
Google SheetsWIPWIPWIP
Google DrawingWIPWIPWIP
ExcalidrawForum post (WIP)WIPWIP
Infinite Canvas   
Sensemaking  Original
LoomWIPWIPBasic, BroaderWIP
Pol.isWorked exampleWIPWIP
Pastcasting  Official FAQWIPWIP