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Model uncertainty

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You are viewing revision 1.1.0, last edited by MichaelA

Model uncertainty is uncertainty surrounding a model itself, including the model's internal uncertainty estimates.

Posts tagged Model uncertainty

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17
Sequence thinking vs. cluster thinking
GiveWell
· 8y ago · 34m read
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83
Hedging against deep and moral uncertainty
MichaelStJules
· 4y ago · 11m read
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A practical guide to long-term planning – and suggestions for longtermism
weeatquince
· 3y ago · 30m read
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Even Allocation Strategy under High Model Ambiguity
MichaelStJules
· 3y ago · 3m read
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127
Methods for improving uncertainty analysis in EA cost-effectiveness models
Froolow
· 2y ago · 43m read
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“The Race to the End of Humanity” – Structural Uncertainty Analysis in AI Risk Models
Froolow
· 1y ago · 25m read
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119
EAs underestimate uncertainty in cause prioritisation
freedomandutility
· 2y ago · 3m read
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109
‘Dissolving’ AI Risk – Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting
Froolow
· 2y ago · 46m read
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92
How We Plan to Approach Uncertainty in Our Cost-Effectiveness Models
GiveWell
· 4mo ago · 27m read
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How to evaluate relative impact in high-uncertainty contexts? An update on research methodology & grantmaking of FP Climate
jackva
· 1y ago · 19m read
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Seeking feedback on new EA-aligned economics paper
jh
· 2y ago · 1m read
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X-risk Agnosticism
Richard Y Chappell
· 10mo ago · 6m read
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How do EA Orgs Account for Uncertainty in their Analysis?
Peter Wildeford
· 7y ago · 18m read
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Prior X%—<1%: A quantified 'epistemic status' of your prediction.
tcelferact
· 1y ago · 2m read
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130
Quantifying Uncertainty in GiveWell's GiveDirectly Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
SamNolan
· 2y ago · 8m read
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