Photo of Lenin Peak^[1] (highest summit on the right)

Context

I have done some mountaineering in the past, but understand it is a relatively risky undertaking. So I have estimated the risk of death for potential future activities I was considering. The relevance is that I cannot continue to have a good life, or (hopefully) help others if I am dead.

Risk of death

The calculations are here. The results are in the table below.

Activity (period)	Deaths during the reference period	Years of the reference period	Deaths per year during the reference period	Amount of activity	Risk of death per amount of activity
Business as usual for someone in Portugal aged 20 to 29^[2] (2019)	396	1	396	1.09 M people	0.0363 %/person/year
Mountaineering between the huts of Tête Rousse and Goûter^[3] (1990 to 2017)	102^[4]	28	3.64	505 k overnights in the huts of Tête Rousse and Goûter	0.0202 %/overnight^[5]
High-altitude mountaineering in the Swiss Alps (2009 to 2021)	303^[6]	13	23.3	150 k people^[7]	0.0155 %/person/year
Climbing Mount Kilimanjaro	Not defined	Not defined	6.50^[8]	30 k attempts	0.0217 %/attempt
Mountaineering in the Aragonese Pyrenees (2014 to 2019)	20^[9]	6	3.33	Not defined	Not defined

As a fun/deadly fact, “the main peak of the Annapurna massif is the most dangerous of the world's mountains, with a 29% fatality rate of everyone who tries to climb it”. Ouch!

I could not easily find information about the decrease in risk due to having a guide, or being roped in the relevant places^[10], but I guess these help. At least in the Alps, falls and rock falls apparently are the 2 most common causes of death^[11], and having a guide is arguably useful to avoid them.

Interpreting the risk

Based on the above, the risk of death for the activities I was considering is around 0.02 %, i.e. 1 in 5 k, or 200 micromorts (= 0.02*10^(-2+6)). This is equivalent to:

Decreasing a life expectancy of 100 years^[12] by 7.30 days (= (0.02 %)*100*365.25).
Going to a sold out football match in Estádio José Alvalade, whose capacity is 50 k people, knowing 10 randomly selected spectators would be killed. This is because 1 in 5 k equals 10 in 50 k.
Increasing my chance of dying, excluding existential risk, by 55.1 % (= 0.02/0.0363) during 1 year.
Correlationally smoking 683 cigarettes (= 7.30/0.0107). This assumes:
- A reduction in life expectancy of 7.30 days, as calculated above.
- Smoking one cigarette

...

Risk attitudes