A warning shot is a global catastrophe that increases awareness and concern about similar future risks and thus reduces the probability of an existential catastrophe.

Terminology

Sometimes the expression "warning shot" is used more generally to cover any event that increases awareness and concern about a certain type of existential risk, regardless of whether the event constitutes a global catastrophe.^[1] A catastrophic failure by an AI system is a plausible candidate for an AI Safety warning shot, but candidates may also include a public outreach campaign or the publication of an exceptionally persuasive book on AI safety.^[2]