All of abramdemski's Comments + Replies

I think these definitions are good enough to explain why AI models should not be classified as software: software is instructions that tell a computer what to do. Or a "program". While deep learning "weights" do tell a computer what to do (a model can be "run on some input" much like a computer program can), these weights do not resemble instructions/programs. 

I think this isn't a big concern in two-party systems, but: if two candidates were using such a platform to raise their funds (or if someone like you set up a widely-used platform for two candidates only), wouldn't this put those candidates at a big disadvantage in comparison to all other candidates?

I'm really wishing for a version of this which would be in a politician's active interest to use (and be in the interest of any pair of politicians to set up).

I agree that having a multi-party system might be most important, but I don't think IRV necessarily leads to a two-party system. For instance, French presidential elections feature far more than two parties (though they're using a two-round system rather than IRV).

Yeah, I know very little about multi-party systems in practice (IE why these specific countries have escaped the two-party dynamic). But it's plausible to me that there are a few exceptions but the overall gravity of a voting system still makes a big difference. Especially in places where a two-p... (read more)

IRV isn’t perfect either. It also fails important criteria, and it isn’t clear whether IRV results in less polarisation. Still, IRV seems clearly superior to plurality voting and has stood the test of time, so I think efforts to implement IRV are worth supporting. (Even the very simple step of adding a runoff between the top two candidates would be a significant improvement over plurality voting.)

I think one of the most important factors is whether a voting system favors a two-party system, for a few reasons:

  • I think the only common political arrangement wo
... (read more)
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Tobias_Baumann
3y
I agree that having a multi-party system might be most important, but I don't think IRV necessarily leads to a two-party system. For instance, French presidential elections feature far more than two parties (though they're using a two-round system rather than IRV). I think that approval voting has significantly more serious tactical voting problems than IRV. Sure, they all violate some criteria, but the question is how serious the resulting issues are in practice. IRV seems to be fine based on e.g. Australia's experience. (Of course, we don't really know how good or bad approval voting would be, because it is rarely used in competitive elections.)

Bayesian Reformation

Bayesian orthodoxy has often been compared to a cult. Here, we take the opposite perspective, comparing Bayesianism to a long-standing institution like the Catholic Church.

The protestant reformation created initial (and ongoing) unrest, including bloody violence. However, we take the view that the reformation improved social institutions generally, culminating in the industrial revolution. Hence, the reformation offers a model of high-leverage changes with dramatically positive consequences on the future.

The primary question, then, is ... (read more)