Related: OpenPhil's review of the evidence on the impacts of incarceration on crime:
The final report reaches two major conclusions:
I estimate that, at typical policy margins in the United States today, decarceration has zero net impact on crime outside of prison. That estimate is uncertain, but at least as much evidence suggests that decarceration reduces crime as increases it. The crux of the matter is that tougher sentences hardly deter crime, and that while imprisoning people temporarily stops them from committing crime outside prison walls,
Where do you think most of RP's short term and long term impact is going to come from?
I think some of the main ways will be:
I don't think those will differ too much across the short/long term, except that shifting resources away from bad interventions may happen more in the short term.