All of Callum McDougall's Comments + Replies

What should we call the Harvard EA office ?

"Supercluster", "Triangulum", or "Centaurus"?

Keeping with the astronomial theme of "Lightcone" and "Constellation", while also sounding like they could be the names for gatherings of people

Supercluster is ... so good
MIRI Conversations: Technology Forecasting & Gradualism (Distillation)

That's a good point! Although I guess one reply you could have to this is that we shouldn't expect paradigm shifts to slow down, and indeed I think most of Yudkowsky's probability mass is on something like "there is a paradigm shift in AI which rapidly unlocks the capabilities for general intellgence", rather than e.g. continuous scaling from current systems.

Yeah, that might be a crux of mine. Although in this case he should have longer timelines because paradigm shifts take quite a while to do, and aren't nearly so fast that we can get such a conceptual breakthrough in 10 years. In fact this could take centuries to get the new paradigm. If we require entirely new paradigms or concepts to get AGI, then we can basically close up the field of AI and declare safety achieved.
MIRI Conversations: Technology Forecasting & Gradualism (Distillation)

Thanks, I really appreciate your comment!

And yep I agree Yudkowsky doesn't seem to be saying this, because it doesn't really represent a phase change of positive feedback cycles of intelligence, which is what he expects to happen in a hard takeoff.

I think more of the actual mathematical models he uses when discussing takeoff speeds can be found in his Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics paper. I haven't read it in detail, but my general impression of this paper (and how it's seen by others in the field) is that it successfully manages to make strong stat... (read more)

MIRI Conversations: Technology Forecasting & Gradualism (Distillation)

Ah yep, I'd been planning to do that but had forgotten, will do now. Thanks!

AI safety starter pack

Update on the project board thing - I'm assuming that was referring to this website, which looks really awesome!

Nice. It looks pretty good indeed! I'll submit something in the near future.
How I use Anki: expanding the scope of SRS

Hey Pablo! These seem really interesting, I love the implementation of music with Anki (even if they haven't all been successes). Adding audio files was one thing I forgot to mention in the post, I did it when I was learning Chinese and it was pretty useful (although I stopped learning Chinese pretty soon after I started adding them, so they never really caught on - I suspect it would have been too much work to mass-produce).

I like the keyboard shortcuts one! It would be great if Anki had a way of testing whether you'd typed out the right keys, although I ... (read more)