All of Carla_Fin's Comments + Replies

Even so, the suffering of birth, death and perhaps of being an inarticulate infant can be high enough to make it net-negative for the primary individual. It can even be high enough to outweigh 35 average human life-years if it is severe enough and/or the average experience value of one life-year is low enough or negative.

Even if this isn't true for the majority, it can still be true for the average, e.g. if 1% of life-years contain unusual suffering 100 times as severe as 1 life-year is good.

Standards of living even in Saudi Arabia

I'm sure the people whose skin is whipped to bloody shreds are very happy that their tormentors enjoy a high GDP.

A new, fiery religion could appear.

Most religions have historical roots, which are culturally perpetuated. Perhaps new cults can emerge, one might also fear the risk of new brainwashing technology. But why speculate about new religious fundamentalism when the old ones are alive and kicking?

odds <1% of sweeping cultural change

No one said anything about odds this low. They are far higher.

P.S.: ... (read more)

it's in the best interests of the children who are being sent to school.

No, but it makes them more useful for economic exploitation by the rich and the politicians in their pockets.

Pretending it's for the children's own good just sounds nicer.

2
kokotajlod
8y
"the resulting world will be a global (2) melting pot ruled by suffering-maximizing Shariah law." This seems extremely implausible to me. Historically, assimilation and globalization has been the norm. Also, Shariah isn't even implemented in many Islamic countries, why would it be implemented in e.g. 2050 Britain? "That's a worse existential risk than pandemics or climate change; in fact it would be worse than human extinction." Hell no! Standards of living even in Saudi Arabia are probably better than they've been in most places for most of human history, and things are only going to get better. On a more abstract level: It really seems like you are exaggerating the danger here. Since the danger is a particular culture/religious group, that's especially insensitive & harmful. You might say "I agree that the odds of this nightmare scenario happening are very small, but because the scenario is so bad, I think we should still be concerned about it." I think that when we start considering odds <1% of sweeping cultural change, then we ought to worry about all sorts of other contenders in that category too. Communism could revive. A new, fiery religion could appear. World War Three could happen. So many things which would be worse, and more likely, then the scenario you are considering.

Eliminating poverty only works if poor people don't exist. If you want to save lives, as is often said, then eliminating poverty implies preventing reproduction. Otherwise, standard malthusian logic applies.

How are you going to make sure their reproduction will be below replacement? What guarantee do you have that there are no natalist religious cultures which won't undergo such a fertility transition with increasing wealth? It seems those cultures are among the worst for welfare, e.g. Islam in its various anti-liberty and pro-suffering variations.

2
Gleb_T
8y
I used to worry about this as well, but this piece was really helpful for me to put such worries to rest.

To the people who downvote us here (or perhaps just one guy with 2 accounts):

Feel free to provide actual constructive criticism. Or solve the problem of global poverty, child mortality, and animal suffering on your own.

There could also be some overlap in helping developing countries reduce their birth rates, e.g. contracepitve availability, young female education, etc. This could increase per capita gdp, decrease child mortality and improve other metrics, without increasing total meat consumption exponentially. Perhaps this could be more of a focus area in EA.

1
tjmather
8y
I agree that family planning could become a new EA focus area. There is a facebook group to discuss family planning charities from a EA perspective. Giving What We Can has a great blog post on research around adolescent pregnancy. Development Media International is conducting a RCT to test whether radio programs can create demand for family planning.

It's also generally agrees that there's not much reason to expect that there to be a lot of suffering animals in the long run, compared to the amount of animal flourishing, if we're able to travel to new planets, make synthetic meats, create awesome entertainment and scientific experiments without their use, et cetera.

This is not a consensus. Most people don't care about suffering in nature or equivalent ecosystems. There is also no consensus that we should outlaw animal use even if we invent fully functional substitutes.

I personally think it's naive to... (read more)

3
RyanCarey
8y
It's not a consensus but none of the authors/researchers who I would.expect to argue this actually do expect the expected amount of animal suffering to outweigh the amount of animal flourishing in the long run. On the other hand, dozens of prominent researchers including Shulman, Beckstead, Wiblin and Bostrom, many of whom are hard-nosed utilitarians, have come to conclude the opposite. What I'm looking for in a credible assessment of this question is for people to think about what kinds of worlds we might see. Then the trick is to focus not on the worlds with a particular salient scenario in them, but the ones that are most durable, with large scope and large populstion. Such worlds will be outliers in the sense that they are not natural anymore, we might live much longer, there may not be a meaningful category of a "human" anymore. There may no-longer be multiple living entities anymore but perhaps just one. Or there may be much better ways to understand the experiences of other beings. We may have a very different approach to morality. It may be possible to create accurate models of a being without simulating their emotions. We may have a better understanding of the mechanics of emotions. Et cetera et cetera. That kind of thinking, sharpened with an empirical approach that takes note of past improvements in technology and welfare, is needed to thoroughly investigate this issue, not a "single issue" presumption about a topic to one's personal interests, however interesting that topic may seem.

That would increase animal suffering. We want to decrease it.

1
RyanCarey
8y
Most people don't generally just want to reduce animal suffering without regard to preferences and happiness of animals. Nor is it reasonable to want purely that, when people have good arguments for other moral perspectives. It's also generally agrees that there's not much reason to expect that there to be a lot of suffering animals in the long run, compared to the amount of animal flourishing, if we're able to travel to new planets, make synthetic meats, create awesome entertainment and scientific experiments without their use, et cetera.

I don't mean to dismiss Muufri, just put the true counterfactual in perspective. If there is a potential market for these products, replaceability is a realistic expectation.

I don't think this dynamic applies to everything equally. I would expect it to apply more for those actions that exist in a market equilibrium, like supplying a substitute for an existing good at a given price. Maybe the same is true for donations, selective consumption, undercover investigations or political activism, but that seems less obvious to me.

4
tjmather
8y
Why did it take so long for someone to start an animal-free milk company? Is it because the state of the research and technology to enable Muufri's business wasn't sufficiently advanced until now? If so, that would support the replaceability hypothesis. Or is it because there is a shortage of entrepreneurs who start organizations to do something no one else is working on? If so, that seems to support Auren Hoffman's hypothesis.

I'm not sure this is true in the long run, but perhaps it helps speed the innovation up.

Animal products without animals is a great idea.

But if it is profitable, someone will do it for-profit anyway. If it is not profitable, these products will fail in the long run. Perhaps altruistic funding can speed this process up, but it won't make a difference in whether or not these products will have a market in the long run.

Maybe an alternative is to lobby for higher animal welfare standards, lower subsidies of animal products, and undercover investigations to unveil cruelty and lawbreaking in the industry. All of these would work even if the substitute products don't take off, but they also have the implicit effect of supporting the substitutes indirectly by making animal exploitation more expensive.

2
Owen Cotton-Barratt
8y
This may be true, but doesn't look like much of a dismissal to me. This kind of dynamic applies to pretty much everything we do - it would very often be achieved later anyway. Moving it forward in time gets benefits for that slice of time, and it may also change long term trajectory if sequencing of some changes matters.
2
tjmather
8y
I think Muufri is different from your typical for-profit company in that they are doing what no-one else is doing, so I do believe they could have an impact. Auren Hoffman, a serial entrepreneur, says that doing what no-one else is doing may have an outsized impact.