I don't completely disagree with your prediction about the outcome, but it seems highly likely to me that the compromise will be worse for Ukraine (and the West/world) than the concessions I outlined. Eg puppet government in Kyiv, death of Ukrainian democracy. I think Plus, this way thousands of people died from warfare and we carry the risk of nuclear war.
In response to your two points:
Thanks Andrew - I'm glad you agree. I also agree that consequentialism encourages a high level of realism. That said, I was expecting a higher level of agreement from the EA community on this post, so it's interesting that not everyone shares my view.
I think the difference with GB/Germany is that the West is unwilling to provide meaningful military support for Ukraine, in the form of troops on the ground. From Ukraine's perspective I think this is the worst of both worlds, because the West won't actually stand up the bully, but also isn't willing to engage with it. This has resulted in war.
This is what I meant by Ukraine being in an unusual position: it is sufficiently West-aligned that it won't give into Putin's demands, and he wants to cause trouble, but its lack of Nato membership means that U...
Yes, I agree that those options aren't super practical (if they were, they probably would have happened last week), but my main point is that they would be preferable to the current situation. I also don't want to reward Putin, obviously. However he's currently on course to take the whole country. Surely this is worse for the West/Ukraine, and better for him?
On the last two bullet points: the first is informed by talking to analysts and parliamentary researchers in the UK. I think most people would agree there is political pressure (both domestic and inter...
Hmm, I think I disagree. It's different to the 'fat man' case because in that case the fat man would otherwise survive if you didn't push him. In this case, the regions will be taken anyway. So the trade-off seems more similar to the classic trolley problem where you are diverting the trolley to save the five.
I agree, however, that Ukraine should be involved with the decision process. My worry is that Nato allies and Ukraine were too quick to close down those channels last week, and that concessions would have been preferable to the current situation (including for Ukrainians).
I agree that Putin would probably have an extended list of demands, many of which would not be worth meeting. The question is whether there was a compromise last week that would have been better than the war we are now seeing.
I'm not sure I understand your first bullet point - obviously I'd love to see Ukraine join the EU. But now they won't anyway. What's the pathway from this war to EU membership?
I agree in an ideal world Ukraine would decide on concessions, but they have now had these regions taken by force. Is this really a better outcome for Ukranians?
Thanks both - this is really interesting and not what I expected. I think in the UK context there is policy-adjacent research being funded for CSER, CLTR and FHI, and a bit for CE, which I count as all in the EA org bucket, whereas I don't know of any EA funding going to non-EA policy think tanks. I had also put CSET more in the EA category, but it's great to hear that things are different in DC and there's a real interest in funding policy think tanks!
I think reaching out with a proposal (as Founders Pledge did with Carnegie) is probably the best bet, but it would also be worth ensuring think tanks are aware of the existence of the EA funds and that they can just apply for them. E.g. I don't think my think tank knows about them.
Yes, I agree, I don't think this is a big problem at the best think tanks, though there are plenty of (generally very ideologically motivated) half-rate think tanks in London and DC.
Oh cool - thanks, I wasn't aware! I think it is potentially quite rare in the UK, which is my context. London has a lot of big think tanks and I don't know of any that have received EA funding. I agree that 'rare' is an unhelpful (and evidently inaccurate) word, though even in the US, as a proportion of EA policy research funding, am I right that the vast majority would still go to EA orgs?
Fwiw, I did some light research (hours not days) a few years ago on the differences between US and European think tanks and the (perhaps out of date) conventional wisdom seemed to be that they play a relatively outsized role in the U.S. (there are various hypotheses for why). So That may be one reason for the US/UK difference (though funders being in the US and many other issues could also be playing a role).
What EA orgs do you have in mind? I guess this would be policy development at places like GovAI and maybe Rethink Priorities? My guess is that the policy-focused funding for EAish orgs like that is dwarfed by the Open Phil funding for CSET and CHS alone, which IIRC is >$130M so far.
I'd guess the answer is "no", based in part on the $55m grant to CSET. (Though it's debatable whether CSET is EA vs EA-adjacent vs non-EA, and CSET was basically "incubated" by that grant rather than already having been a well-known think tank.) Also there's lots of funding to places like Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Centre for Global Development.
One could look at OP's grants database to get a more systematic sense of this. (Of course OP doesn't account for all of EA funding, but does account for a big chunk.)
(That apparent error aside, I still though...
It is understandable that we want to prioritise those who are closer to us. It’s natural, instinctive, and often helps society to function - like when parents prioritise their kids. But it can also create harmful barriers and division.
History is full of examples of humans devaluing those who seem different or distant to them: just think about how different religions have treated each other, 19th Century slavery, or even the way people prefer to give to local charities over global development.
We should be really cautious when discounting the value of ...
This is incredibly helpful. For those interested in a UK context, I've put together some shorter and less well evidenced pieces on similar themes:
Working in Parliament: How to get a job & have an impact
Becoming a Member of Parliament: potential routes & impact
Writing about my job: NGO Advocacy (UK context)
In general I think the core recommendations carry across to a UK/European context. A few of exceptions that come to mind:
Thanks Aidan, super helpful. I too have cooperative instincts but am very sceptical of China and the US ever being friendly without some sort of significant political change in China, though I believe this doesn't necessarily require the downfall of the CCP, but could at least initially take the form of a more moderate / Western-sympathetic leader. It's unclear how that will happen any time soon though.
On France, my understanding is that its exclusion is primarily down to (a) a strong preference for nuclear propulsion technology, which is held by the...
This is a good analysis! Just to extend / build on your argument, the key thing I'm interested in is the probability and extent of any armed conflict. There is a lot of game theory involved with this, but crudely speaking conflict can arise when one side sees an advantage in attacking first. This could be because they hold a stronger-but-not-dominant position or a weaker-but-not-crushed position, as it is in these positions that the payoffs to conflict are highest. So perhaps the idea behind your first bullet point from the Economist is that a balanced pow...
Thanks Nathan. In terms of briefing MPs, I think my main aim is to shift the debate towards the most important aspects of the deal, from a longer-term and bigger scale perspective. E.g. when Parliament debates AUKUS, it would be a shame if the debate entirely focuses on UK job opportunities from the deal, or French anger, when there are bigger issues of nuclear warfare at play. I guess the theory of change is that this improves the standard of debate which helps politicians make better defence capability decisions in the future.
Thanks, I think I agree with most of this. I wonder also if the US and others were a bit surprised at how strongly France reacted. As with the Afghanistan withdrawal, I wonder if Biden underestimated the strength of European partners' feelings. I agree it's hard to assess how much these things ultimately matter though.
It does seem that, for Australia's purposes, the nuclear propulsion option is superior to diesel, however I'm sure a key part of opting for nuclear was getting to be in a pact with the US.
Answering my own question here, but this seems like a thoughtful and well-reasoned take:
Fair point - political wasn't the right word. I guess it's more about those issues being about particular countries' interests in particular historical contexts, whereas nuclear and GMOs feel more like classic cause areas (and are still very live today). Also, I don't think nuclear and GMOs fall along party political lines.
I guess your point about the USSR raises a question about this example which has been explored in other threads: I don't think the ideal example is one where the cause is obviously bad (like persecuting Christians), I think it's so...
Thanks! I had considered things like this, but I'm not sure how well it illustrates the cause prioritisation point as in many ways these feel like the same cause (blindness) but different interventions, one of which is more effective than the other. I.e. it feels a bit more like a standard PlayPumps case, rather than highlighting the importance of picking the right cause?
Feel free to push back if you disagree - I'm not too sure how tightly defined a 'cause area' is, but my general presumption is that it refers to addressing a distinct problem.
I guess one question I would have is whether the campaigners at the time were using good reason and evidence. It's possible that the information we have now was not available to them, and it's also possible that it's a legitimate cause area (i.e. overpopulation is a real concern) even if the means (sterilisation etc.) are clearly wrong. I'm not an expert on this at all but will read up on more recent literature on overpopulation!
Thanks so much - someone else suggested China's One Child Policy and I think this or a more general point on overpopulation might be where we end up! Really great suggestion. The sterilisation stories are harrowing and I think could really bring the point home.
So I guess the reason is that the example illustrates the importance of cause prioritisation more strongly. It's the same with PlayPumps: MacAskill could have picked a much better charitable intervention and yet still argued for effectiveness, but this wouldn't powerfully demonstrate just how important it is to get the intervention right.
I completely agree with your overall point about maximising the good we can do, and other parts of the book will emphasise how important it is to not just settle for 'good enough'!
Interesting. Without reading into it, I've always assumed that Western defences of colonialism (incl. White Man's Burden) were somewhat disingenuous, i.e. defending something they knew was wrong, or was at least controversial, and the motivations were not altruistic. The ideal case is one where people are being genuinely altruistic but completely miss the mark.
Prohibition is a super interesting one I hadn't considered, thanks!
GMOs/nuclear power are interesting but I'd suspect it's unlikely to engage readers' emotions much. I.e. I doubt they'll leave thinking 'wow, what a waste of time to oppose GMOs!' because there is something quite intuitively unappealing about them. Might be worth a mention though, even if not as the key case study.
The others feel a little bit politicised, even though I agree!
Thanks. The nuclear one is a great example.
We want examples of both prioritisation between causes and prioritisation between interventions, but cases of the latter are far easier to find - like PlayPumps the examples you give. I actually think the former is a more important EA insight: it would probably be more valuable for the world for people/resources to focus on the most pressing cause areas, rather than to do what we currently do more (locally) effectively.
Thanks - do you know of any analysis / data behind your three bullet points which I could point to? Instinctively I agree that the costs almost certainly outweigh the benefits, but I anticipate scepticism from readers!
These are great ideas and exactly along the right lines of what I was looking for. I agree the religious aspect is tricky to navigate, but perhaps being somewhat close to home is useful for readers (i.e. I expect many readers will believe in the apocalypse, but very few would endorse sects who predict specific dates.
Someone on Facebook has also suggested China's One Child Policy, which is a nice contemporary example, not least because it was reversed this year!
Thanks, ALS is a good suggestion (and I could imagine us using it) but I don't think it quite meets the 'PlayPump' test, in that I doubt readers would go away thinking that ALS is a bad cause area, in the same way that they would think PlayPumps are actually bad. It's possible that the bar I'm setting is too high, but ideally I want a cause area which people reflect on and think 'wow, what a waste of time, that's not worth pursuing at all!' - but perhaps all the main causes which people focus on are at least somewhat good.
I think plastic straws are a v good option here, when you consider that:
This is certainly closer to the playpumps [actively harmful once you think properly about it] than the ALS [not a huge issue but it's not like stopping ALS would be actually bad in a vacuum].
Hey! I'm not sure I have the right experience or knowledge to make the comparative claim, but it would certainly be worth considering the following:
Thanks, these are great insights and I hadn't considered the first before. I'd always assumed one's impact would improve if one's MP became a minister (albeit depending on the policy brief), partly because the (very few) friends I know whose MPs were promoted saw their own work become more interesting and important, and some became political advisers. Perhaps a big factor is whether the new minister is allocated spads and whether they promote their parliamentary staff to these roles. I think a lot of spads are former assistants, but that doesn't imply that...
I've often heard the phrase "numbers matter" but not sure if I prefer it. The concept reminds me of (the inverse of) the quote attributed to Stalin that "the death of one man is a tragedy, the death of a million is a statistic." In the EA for Christians community we have sometimes used the phrase "love thy statistic" as a slogan to counter this.