Thanks for this post, agree with other comments that it's very well written and clear, and on first reading I agree with the core message even if some of the specific points/evidence offered may be debatable (e.g. discussions in the comments re: Lynas). Upvoted!
I want to draw attention to one major issue with the analysis that also permeates the dicsussion about climate change as an x-risk both elsewhere and in the discussion here in the comments.
'Following, e.g., Halstead, it is instructive to split the question of climate change damages into three ...
Thank you for writing this profile & post. Two queries/thoughts that came to mind:
I think this comment demonstrates the importance of quantifying probabilities. e.g. you write:
Could agriculture cope with projected warming? Possibly, maybe probably. Can it do so while supply chains, global power relations and financial systems are disrupted or in crisis? That's a much harder prospect.
I can imagine either kinda agreeing with this comment, or completely disagreeing, depending on how we're each defining "possibly", "probably", and "much harder".
For what it's worth, I also think it's probably that agriculture will cope with projected warming...
Hi John,
Many thanks to you & the others in the comments for the insightful discussion. Could you clarify a few points:
If you have any additional resources to back these statements up I would love to read them - thanks!
Two neglected X-risks
I've been going through various listings of x-risks (and GCR's, to account for some uncertainty re: climate and nuclear) by prominent organisations, and after a brief scanning have found that the usual list includes:
No list that I came across (explicitly) includes either:
I would make the case that both of these are potential X-risks, and should be taken seriou...
Many thanks for the quick reply & clarifications Abraham! Looking forward to the information sessions.
Fantastic to see Rethink expanding, and I absolutely love the idea of the Special Projects program!
Regarding the Special Projects Associate position:
I'm curious as to why this is an Associate level position and not ...
Thanks for writing this post Fin!
I want to express my support for the 'Space governance research centre' idea. I've published a little on Space Policy/Governance and had some very positive feedback from professionals working within the field (e.g. within ESA, Raytheon, companies engaged in EO and so on) supporting the need for proactive policymaking and governance of space activities.
It seems like a natural area for a research centre/think tank/policy lab aimed at policy research and implementation algined with principles of longtermism & EA. I w...
Love the idea - just writing to add that Futures Studies, participatory futures in particular & future scenario methodologies could be really useful for Longtermist research. Methods in these fields can be highly rigorous (I've been working with some futures experts as part of a project to design 3 visions of the future - which have just finished going through a lengthly stress-testing and crowd-sourcing process to open them up to public reflection and input), especially if the scenario design is approached in a systematised way using a well-developed ...
Sounds fantastic - drop me an email at j.b.p.davies@uu.nl and I would love to set up a meeting. In the meantime I'll dive into EIP's work!
You may be interested in the following project I'm working for: https://deeptransitions.net/news/the-deep-transition-futures-project-investing-in-transformation/ . The project goal is developing a new investment philosophy & strategy (complete with new outcome metrics) aimed at achieving transformational systems change. The project leverages the Deep Transitions theoretical framework as developed within the field of Sustainability Transitions and Science, Technology and Innovation Studies to create a theory of change and subsequently enact it with a gr...
Hi Peter (if I may!),
I love this and your other Longtermism suggestions, thanks for submitting them! Not sure if you saw my below suggestion of a Longtermism Policy Lab - but maybe this is exactly the kind of activity that could fall under such an organisation/programme (within Rethink even)? Likewise for your suggestion of a Lobbying group - by working directly with societal partners (e.g. National Ministries across the world) you could begin implementation directly through experimentation.
I've been involved in a similar (successful) project called ...
Longtermism Policy Lab
Epistemic Institutions, Values and Reflective Processes, Great Power Relations, Space Governance, Research That Can Help Us Improve
Despite the growing recognition of the importance of long-term perspectives, governance remains oriented around short-term incentives. More coordination and collaboration between researchers and policymakers, practicioners and industry professionals is needed to translate research into policy. The Longtermism Policy Lab will bridge this gap, working with societal partners and governments at all levels (loc...
Space Policy Lab
Space Governance, Epistemic Institutions
Human activity in space is intensifying with the growing challenge of space debris, the deployment of satellite mega-constellations, and the prospects of asteroid mining and long-term colonisation raising unique challenges to a vital yet neglected domain. Current space governance - the laws, rules, norms and institutions that structure interactions in space - is falls far short of meeting these challenges. A Space Policy Lab would research governance frameworks analyse policy issues shape expert disco...
'Climate change could also increase other existential risks. For example, there could be a war about ressources that is fought by nuclear weapons, synthetic pathogens or malevolent AIs.'
To add to this - solar geoengineering could be a major risk (and risk factor for inter-state conflict) that becomes increasingly likely under severe AGW scenarios (people accept more drastic measures in desparate circumstances).
Thank you for hosting this - always love the opportunity to put questions to knowledgeable & interesting people!
I am particularly interested in learning more about your theory of change. Would you be able to elaborate on what activities you focus on, with which actors, and why? How will this lead to your stated goals?
Some questions in my head which may help to clarify what I mean:
Hi @JBPDavies, thank you for your questions and happy to comment on examples from my home country.
Our current focus in Europe is on two priorities: i) strengthened the AI Act, and ii) building support among European countries for a treaty on autonomous weapons systems. For the first priority, we work mainly with the EU institutions. For the second, our focus is with Member State capitals (due to the limited EU influence over security issues, as you rightly point out).
We regularly evaluate our choice of projects, and are currently conduct an eva...
What in your opinion are the largest bottlenecks/barriers to achieving reduction of nuclear risk today? Would more advocacy groups be useful, or greater focus on popular social movements? Is further research needed, or is it simply a case of translating common knowledge into political will to take action (& for example reduce stockpiles or end first use posture)?
To cut to the essence of my question - what should individuals focus their efforts on today to have the greatest impact in terms of reducing nuclear threat?
In your yearly review you mention that Rethink may significantly expand its Longtermism research group in the future, including potentially into new focus areas and topics. Do you have any ideas of what these might be (beyond the mentioned AI governance), and how you might choose (i.e. looking for a niche where Rethink can play a major role, following demand of stakeholders, etc.)?
If in 5 and/or 10 years time you look back on RP and feel its been a major success, what would that look like? What kind(s) of impact would you consider important, and by what bar would you measure your attainment/progress towards that?
Congratulations! Brilliant to see a combined advocacy approach too - if you don't mind sharing, how did you go about producing the accompanying video? I'm keen to introduce more media into my own advocacy work so I'm keen to learn.
Thank you for writing this - looking forward to diving into the full report this weekend. Congratulations on finishing what must have been a major undertaking!