Can you provide some links on the latest IFR estimates? A quick Google search leads me to the same 0.5% ballpark.
I think there is high variance in the growth rate of developing countries. My own country (Iran) certainly does not seem to be converging much. I also think that the areas where most convergence happens are the areas that are more materialistic; The medical textbooks get imported (and somewhat learned), but the institutions and attitudes that produced the textbooks in the first place, not so much.
Which would be more dystopian to you, DNA engineering to ensure the distribution of human behavior will not include unilateral destruction, or super surveillance?
I personally think DNA engineering at least has some positive points, too, while surveillance is purely a necessary evil.
Expected utility as the doer believes? Otherwise the system is too complex for the karma to actually work well. It’s also probably deterministic ...
I definitely think the more broad appeal of fiction does make it worthwhile as an outreach effort (though it needs to be explicitly educational. Mother of Learning, for all its good writing, doesn’t teach how to think better.). The concepts touched in the fictional works (that I remember) were all very low-inferential distance from the common culture, so they were confined to beginner concepts without an in-depth overview. For example, the Frozen fanfic by Wales touches on AI safety and effective altruism, and is fun and beautiful, but I did not learn anything from it.
As you say, fiction teaches less concepts and teaches them less well. I do think it might teach more memorably though.
I have heavily updated on you being a bad faith actor. If you seriously believe your argument is not significantly pro-censorship, I suggest studying censorship historically in cases it clashes with your political views. Then compare those historical cases with what you advocate. Political censorship always believes itself to be something else. As the theocracy I live in says on my textbooks, “Freedom is not to do what anyone wants. Freedom is doing what the divine leader says.” Or as famous fiction has it, “war is peace.”
This is a good link-list. It seems undiscoverable here though. I think thinking on how you can make such lists discoverable is useful. Making it a top-level post seems an obvious improvement.
I don’t know :) I guess the idea itself is definitely sound, but implementing it correctly might be a challenge.
I had written a good answer here, but it got deleted because I accidentally tapped a link. Comments should save drafts ...
The TLDR of it is:
This will be a distracting overhead though. Also, there can be many comments on a single paragraph.
I think greaterwrong has an option to hide karma.
Has anyone considered a hackernews-style section? I know there is already support for posting links, but:
I am curious, why isn’t the greaterwrong frontend getting adopted as the primary UI? It’s much faster, much more touch-friendly, customizable, and generally rocks. Its only downpoint is that it lacks features compared to LW, which should be solved in, say, 6 months? That would be a major QoL improvement. The LW UI frequently hangs on my iPad, it’s so bloated.
Is it hard to make here and Lesswrong more compatible? I am thinking of a cross-posting feature that has comments of both forums. Linking the accounts (for subscriptions, for example. Karma maybe.) also seems nice.
I think this has bad effects also. It’ll make the site appeal more to “normal” people, and look less serious. It also doesn’t give us any useful information, but take up real estate and use up attention. It might make groupthink more prevalent, too; I personally have found my thinking is most honest when I am thinking alone and don’t plan to share them socially.
Can you add a “research summary” tag for posts like this? Other suggestions: “book summary,” “podcast/talk summary,” “summary.”
If EA gets the tag feature from Lesswrong, there can easily be a repository of summaries of important papers. That seems quite valuable, given the alternative is science journalism which is geared towards random results and a more unsophisticated audience. Update: EA does have tags. I’ll ping in the relevant post for a “research summary” tag.
Mentioning writing summaries of research papers on an EA advice page is a good way to spread the norm. Based on research on learning (and common sense), this will also help the author to consolidate their new insights in their own brain.
Can’t you release the backups on torrent in the event of a legal shutdown? Without actually admitting that you “leaked” the data, of course. Considering how successful piracy has been, making a first-party backup persist on the net seems like a low hanging fruit to me.
This is a good marketing strategy, but it risks becoming “Moloch;” The popular cause (originally intended as marketing) might eat away the others.
Other than that, why do you expect EA to more successful than other groups? Big, popular, entrenched problems are seldom easily exploitable. In the case of inequality; There are some conservative suggestions I have heard that seem worth trying out (e.g., public minority-only schools with strong selection filters and high academic/behavioral standards), but are readily dismissed because they are not politically de
I think just not answering or downvoting is enough. You can point out that there is not sufficient evidence for you to take the time to study this long document which also seemed crackpotty to your quick skim. That is the truth, after all. If the crackpot repeatedly spams, well spamming warrants a ban.
I am speaking purely as an speculating layman, but hasn’t Europe failed economically and militarily compared to American and Asian countries?
The biggest effect of rational fiction for me was feeling the “warm” glow of the ingroup in the fiction I consumed. I could empathize with the characters. I think this kind of effect is inherently good, as feeling like you’re a minority with no culture is bad and encourages homogenization.
I was already a “rationalist” before reading rational fiction, and the fiction works have always struck me as much weaker than the content on our forums. On using them to “convert” other people to rationality … Well ... (read more)
Perhaps the reason we don’t know of them offhand is that preventing big obscure potential harm never gets much status among our species.
I think, with our limited capacity for social consensus, and our high-IQ bias towards being contrarian, having the norm of bashing (not censoring per se) pro-censorship ideas is beneficial.
First they came for the CommunistsAnd I did not speak outBecause I was not a CommunistThen they came for the SocialistsAnd I did not speak outBecause I was not a SocialistThen they came for the trade unionistsAnd I did not speak outBecause I was not a trade unionistThen they came for the JewsAnd I did not speak outBecause I was not a JewThen they came for meAnd there was no one leftTo speak out for me