Could you please provide the JHU questions and predictions for those of us who don't want to sign up?
I suggest the question you've linked has an artificially low upper bound
The question has an upper bound of 100 million deaths, not cases. I don't think that is "artificially low".
Maybe you are confusing Hurford's link with this old question, which does have an artificially low upper bound and deals with cases instead of deaths.
All metaculus questions are about cases, not deaths.
Most of them are, but the one Hurford linked to is explicitly about the number of deaths: "How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coron...
Note: despite it being kind of neat (in my humble opinion) to develop such a scoring system, and getting mixed-to-positive feedback about it, I don't seem to have gotten attention from EA or EA-adjacent media, journalists, podcasts, etc.
Have you tried reaching out to anyone?
The opposite trend occurred for SARS (in the same class as nCoV-2019), which originally had around a 2-5% deaths/cases rate but ended up with >10% once all cases ran their full course.
In a comment from October 2019, Ben Pace stated that there is currently no actionable policy advice the AI safety community could give to the President of the United States. I'm wondering to what extent you agree with this.
If the US President or an influential member of Congress was willing to talk one-on-one with you for a couple hours on the issue of AI safety policy, what advice would you give them?
I skimmed the post, but I couldn't find what this is responding to. Could you provide a link for context?
The founders of PETRL include Daniel Filan, Buck Shlegeris, Jan Leike, and Mayank Daswani, all of whom were students of Marcus Hutter. Brian Tomasik coined the name.
Of these five people, four are busy doing AI safety-related research. (Filan is a PhD student involved with CHAI, Shlegeris works for MIRI, Leike works for DeepMind, and Tomasik works for FRI. OTOH, Daswani works for a cybersecurity company in Australia.)
So, my guess is that they became too busy to work on PETRL, and lost interest. It's kind of a shame, because PETRL was (to my knowledge)...
I think that the 2018-12-05 datapoint is wrong because it came from a Quora answer which was later edited. I can't prove this, but it seems likely because the rest of the datapoints are monotonically increasing.
Most of the other data came from FB itself (as documented in the 'raw data' link above), so it should be pretty solid.
Hi, as the person who personally generated the wiki dump, I can assure you that the complete content of every edit revision of every article was saved, and the data is saved in an XML format that can be trivially imported into MediaWiki. Additionally, I grabbed it after site activity had already died down, but before the wiki got taken over by spambots, so the dump should be in pretty much perfect condition.
I generated a graph of the number of EA Forum posts per year, as well as the number of new user registrations. I extracted the data using the GraphQL API.
The raw JSON data for all posts is here. I had to split the user data into two files due to upload limits. The raw JSON data for all unbanned (but otherwise unfiltered) users is here. The JSON data for all banned users is here.
Results:
Regarding the Effective Altruism FB group member growth over time, I was able to piece together the following graph using archived snapshots and various other sources: https://i.imgur.com/Lejj0e1.png
The raw data (including sources for each data point) is available here. If anyone has more comprehensive data, please let me know.
Based on that, I estimate (linearly interpolate) the following member counts for January 1 of each year:
You have the actual data for 2018 and 2019. If you could sha...
This is the data moderators of the main FB group have collected about number of members over time: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pOiVv6q2dW6IcEHvGxp4TLKjUtOVkxX6GjqZ_91Vv7E/edit?usp=sharing
I'm interested.