Justin Otto

Comments

A quick and crude comparison of epidemiological expert forecasts versus Metaculus forecasts for COVID-19

Thank you very much! Apologies for not replying to your earlier comment. I was predicting that the Metaculus community prediction would outperform the surveys, and it is gratifying to see.

I'm Linch Zhang, an amateur COVID-19 forecaster and generalist EA. AMA

Forecasting has become slightly prestigious in my social circle. At current margins of forecastingness, this seems like a good thing. Do you predict much corruption or waste if the hobby got much more prestigious than it currently is? This question is not precise and comes from a soup of vaguely-related imagery.

A quick and crude comparison of epidemiological expert forecasts versus Metaculus forecasts for COVID-19

If I'm reading this Tweet thread correctly, anna wiederkehr from 538 seems to say the graphic was correct and the error really is that much.

https://twitter.com/wiederkehra/status/1245026159529807873?s=20

It is further implied by them in another tweet:

https://twitter.com/wiederkehra/status/1244956725150650368?s=20

Hey @katy_milkman
you seemed to have missed our follow up (and we'll do another this week) that shows a different picture in case estimates from the surveyed experts. It takes time to understand what's happening.