Justin Otto

Justin Otto's Comments

A quick and crude comparison of epidemiological expert forecasts versus Metaculus forecasts for COVID-19

If I'm reading this Tweet thread correctly, anna wiederkehr from 538 seems to say the graphic was correct and the error really is that much.

https://twitter.com/wiederkehra/status/1245026159529807873?s=20

It is further implied by them in another tweet:

https://twitter.com/wiederkehra/status/1244956725150650368?s=20

Hey @katy_milkman
you seemed to have missed our follow up (and we'll do another this week) that shows a different picture in case estimates from the surveyed experts. It takes time to understand what's happening.