Justin Otto

Justin Otto's Comments

A quick and crude comparison of epidemiological expert forecasts versus Metaculus forecasts for COVID-19

If I'm reading this Tweet thread correctly, anna wiederkehr from 538 seems to say the graphic was correct and the error really is that much.


It is further implied by them in another tweet:


Hey @katy_milkman
you seemed to have missed our follow up (and we'll do another this week) that shows a different picture in case estimates from the surveyed experts. It takes time to understand what's happening.