Thank you very much! Apologies for not replying to your earlier comment. I was predicting that the Metaculus community prediction would outperform the surveys, and it is gratifying to see.
Forecasting has become slightly prestigious in my social circle. At current margins of forecastingness, this seems like a good thing. Do you predict much corruption or waste if the hobby got much more prestigious than it currently is? This question is not precise and comes from a soup of vaguely-related imagery.
If I'm reading this Tweet thread correctly, anna wiederkehr from 538 seems to say the graphic was correct and the error really is that much.
It is further implied by them in another tweet:
Hey @katy_milkman you seemed to have missed our follow up (and we'll do another this week) that shows a different picture in case estimates from the surveyed experts. It takes time to understand what's happening.