I’m Mariana Oka, co-founder of Ideosphere. We are building the epistemic infrastructure to turn fragmented technical progress in AI into calibrated, decision-grade signals. By combining expert judgment with strict Brier scoring and calibration tracking, we help institutional decision-makers navigate the uncertainty of AI development trajectories. My background is in the tech industry, and I’m dedicated to improving how the global community synthesizes evidence to mitigate existential risks.

• Expert Forecasters: I’m looking to connect with researchers and technical experts in AI Safety, Governance, and Biosecurity to join our Founding Forecaster alpha cohort.
• Methodology Feedback: I’d love to speak with experts in Delphi studies and evidence synthesis regarding our calibration and weighted-aggregation models.
• Institutional Partners: I'm interested in meeting policy-makers or researchers at labs (e.g., GPAI, MIT FutureTech) who need more reliable, quantitative data on AI milestones.

• Technical Insights: I can share how we are structuring resolvable markets for complex AI progress milestones (e.g., reasoning thresholds, hardware bottlenecks).
• Early Data Access: I can provide early access to our alpha platform for those interested in seeing how calibrated forecasting can improve their lab's or organization's sensemaking.
• Forecasting Engagement: If you are a technical researcher looking to build a verifiable public track record of your predictions, I can help get you onboarded as a founding expert.