Thank you for this valuable contribution to the community. I have struggled with the concept of neglectedness - and it predictive value for marginal returns - since it was first introduced to me. I don't buy it and your post gives a first good counter argument.
One aspect that seems to be overlooked is the effect of R&D on marginal returns. If more funds have been spent on R&D, funds spent on implementation can be allocated more efficiently. So for many cause area's you may actually see increasing marginal returns (on dollars spent on impl... (read more)