I just wrote a relevant forum post on how simulation models / Agent-based models could be highly impactful for pandemic preparedness: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2hTDF62hfHAPpJDvk/simulation-models-could-help-prepare-for-the-next-pandemic
A crucial aspect of this is better software tools for building large scale simulations, so I would say this is a large opportunity for someone who wants to work in software engineering.
Even just working as a research engineer in an existing academic group building epidemiological models would be impactf...
Thanks for writing this, in my opinion the field of complex systems provides a useful and under-explored perspective and set of tools for AI safety. I particularly like the insights you provide in the "Complex Systems for AI Safety" section, for example that ideas in complex systems foreshadowed inner alignment / mesa-optimisation.
I'd be interested in your thoughts on modelling AGI governance as a complex system, for example race dynamics.
I previously wrote a forum post on how complex systems and simulation could be a useful tool in EA for improving...
I can think of a few other areas of direct impact which could particularly benefit from talented software engineers:
Improving climate models is a potential route for high impact on climate change, there are computational modelling initiatives such as the Climate Modeling Alliance and startups such as Cervest. It would also be valuable to contribute to open source computational tools such as the Julia programming language and certain Python libraries etc.
There is also the area of computer simulations for organisational / government decision making, such as ...
Is there a list of the ideas that the fellows were working on? I'd be curious.
It's not surprising to me that there aren't many "product focused" traditional startup style ideas in the longtermist space, but what does that leave? Are most of the potential organisations research focused? Or are there some other classes of organisation that could be founded? (Maybe this is a lack of imagination on my part!)
Congratulations, this is really great to hear, and seems like a fantastic opportunity!
Out of interest, what was the sequence of events, did you already have a PhD program lined up when you applied for funding? Or are you going to apply for one now that you have the funding? Also had you already discussed this with your current employer before applying for funding?
I only ask because I have been considering attempting to do something similar!
This is a good point, although I suppose you could still think of this in the framing of "just in time learning", i.e. you can attempt a deep RL project, realise you are hopelessly out of your depth, then you know you'd better go through Spinning Up in Deep RL before you can continue.
Although the risk is that it may be demoralising to start something which is too far outside of your comfort zone.
you can attempt a deep RL project, realise you are hopelessly out of your depth, then you know you'd better go through Spinning Up in Deep RL before you can continue.
Tbc, I do generally like the idea of just in time learning. But:
I massively agree with the idea of "just do a project", particularly since it's a better way of getting practice of the type of research skills (like prioritisation and project management) that you will need to be a successful researcher.
I suppose the challenge may be choosing a topic for your project, but reaching out to others in the community may be one good avenue for harvesting project ideas.
What are your thoughts on re-implementing existing papers? It can be a good way to develop technical skills, and maybe a middle ground between learning pre-requisites and doing your own research project? Or would you say it's better to just go for your own project?
These links are excellent! I hadn't come across these before, but I am really excited about the idea of using roleplay and table top games as a way of generating insight and getting people to think through problems. It's great to see this being applied to AI scenarios.
@djbinder Thanks for taking the time to write these comments. No need to worry about being negative, this is exactly the sort of healthy debate that I want to see around this subject.
I think you make a lot of fair points, and it’s great to have these insights from someone with a background in theoretical physics, however I would still disagree slightly on some of them, I will try to explain myself below.
I don’t think the only meaningful definition of complex systems is that they aren’t amenable to mathematical analysis, that is perhaps a feature of them, b...
I would add the New England Complex Systems Institute, particularly Yaneer Bar Yam: https://necsi.edu/corona-virus-pandemic
In this article from January 2020, which has aged very well, they were advocating for restrictions on international movement and warning of the effect of superspreader events on estimates of R0.
Yaneer Bar Yam also started this multidisciplinary effort to tackle covid: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/
Hey Alex, thanks for writing this, loads of useful advice in here that I want to try!
I have had similar (but seemingly milder than yours) problems with low energy, where I just felt very lethargic and drained periodically (about once a month). I would compare it to how you feel in the first day of getting a flu or cold, with low energy and mild muscle aches. I went to the doctor and had a similar story to you, they ran some blood tests and found nothing wrong, and that was it.
The answer: it was almost definitely stress. I was in a management position at wo...
Hey Venkatesh, I am also really interested in Complexity Science, in fact I am going to publish a blog post on here soon about Complexity Science and how it relates to EA.
I've also read Bookstaber's book, in fact Doyne Farmer has a similar book coming out soon which looks great, you can read the intro here.
I hadn't heard of the Complexity Weekend event but it looks great, will check that out!
This is an interesting thought experiment and I like the specific framing of the question.
My initial thoughts are that this clearly would have been a good thing to try to work on, mainly due to the fact that the 2008 financial crisis cost trillions of dollars and arguably also led to lots of bad political developments in the western world (eg. setting the stage for Trumpism). If you buy the Tyler Cowen arguemnts that economic growth is very important for the long term then that bolsters this case. However a caveat would be that due to moral uncertainty it'...
Hey JP, thanks for your question, here are some questions that may be useful in your search, and may help people other provide you more advice:
1. Do you have any criteria for what you consider a "job within EA"? There are many types of job which could be considered EA related, from jobs within EA organisations, to jobs which have a large potential impact but are not directly for EA orgs (for example working in certain government departments or private companies). It might be worth reframing how you think about this as "how can I find a job that has t...
All this advice seems realy good, and I want to particularly echo this bit:
It might be worth reframing how you think about this as "how can I find a job that has the biggest impact", rather than "how can I get an EA job".
Regarding AI alignment and existential risk in general, Cummings already has a blog post where he mentions these: https://dominiccummings.com/2019/03/01/on-the-referendum-31-project-maven-procurement-lollapalooza-results-nuclear-agi-safety/
So he is clearly aware and responsive to the these ideas, it would be great to have an EA minded person on his new team to emphasise these.
Thanks for the great list of resources!
Coincidentally I just discovered the Jim Rutt Show podcast recently and I've been enjoying it.