All of Stephen Beard's Comments + Replies

Hi Locke - I'm not 100% sure how seriously nuclear Armageddon is taken in the EA community as I'm also pretty new. I'm just starting a piece of research to try and highlight where specific de-carbonisation efforts will be found (focused on a specific country - in my case Canada). Even though I haven't started I strongly suspect the answer will be agriculture, as it accounts for a very large proportion of emissions, there are many proven, scalable low cost solutions and it seems to me to be very neglected from a funding point of view (I say that based on some brief research I did on the UK) compared to other areas like electric vehicles and renewable energy.   

Hi Dem, I don't really have a defined framework for thinking about existential threats. I have read quite a lot around AI, Nuclear (command and control is a great book on the history of nuclear weapons) and Climate Change. I tend to focus mainly on the likelihood of something occurring and the tractability of preventing it. On a very high level I've concluded that the AI threat is unlikely to be catastrophic, and until a general AI is even invented there is little research or useful work that can be done in this area. I think the nuclear weapons threat is ... (read more)

1
Dem0sthenes
2y
Yes that makes sense and aligns with my thinking as well. Do you have a sense of how much the EA community gives to AI vs nuclear vs bioweapon existential risks? Or how to go about figuring that out? 
1
Locke
2y
Does the Doomsday Clock and the bulletin of the Atomic scientists come up much in EA? I'm a bit new to this scene. https://thebulletin.org/ Jerry Brown's warnings about nuclear Armageddon and the slow building climate tidal wave have definitely turned me on that organization. Where do you see the opportunity to make a difference in the decarbonization effort? 

Thanks Kim - I had a read, a very interesting high level summary on these topics.

Thanks - leaving aside the debate on whether nuclear power is unfairly underrated by Drawdown, I'd certainly agree with some of the criticisms. It's a great opening list of ideas, but it excludes unproven solutions which rules out obviously essential solutions like carbon capture and storage. They do not give a cost effectiveness ranking to the solutions and tractability doesn't seem to be a major consideration (from listening to the podcast they have clearly considered this, but not in the depth that EA folk would probably like). Really it's these critici... (read more)

Hi All, 

Just introducing myself! I've been an advocate of EA for a number of years but I'm new to the forum. I've spent a while reading though various posts and it's great to see a forum with such a reasonable, open minded and friendly tone. 

Like most people here I'm really interested in how humanity responds to existential threats (e.g. climate change) and global living standards (e.g. economic development in poorer regions). My background has been working in a start up - so I feel very comfortable starting projects, getting things off the groun... (read more)

1
Dem0sthenes
2y
Hi Stephen! Thanks for the post. What are the typical frameworks that you use to think about existential threats? Sometimes for instance we utilize probabilities to describe the chance of say nuclear Armageddon though that seems a bit off from a frequentinost philosophical perspective. For example, that type of event either happens or it doesn't. We can't run 100 earth high fidelity simulations and count the various outcomes and then calculate the probability of various catastrophes. I work with data in my day job so these types of questions are top of mind.