All of Tobias Dänzer's Comments + Replies

Messy personal stuff that affected my cause prioritization (or: how I started to care about AI safety)

Also see Wikipedia on affective forecasting and projection bias. (h/t the book Stumbling on Happiness; note that I'm not sure whether this field of study was hit by the replication crisis)

The Unweaving of a Beautiful Thing


I would not a miss a second of the beauty

-> would not miss

Thanks. Fixed.

There can never be too many essays recommending EAs not to push themselves past their breaking point. This essay may not be the most potent take on this concept, but since there are bound to be some essays on optimization-at-all-costs among the most-upvoted EA essays, there should be some essays like this one to counterbalance that. For instance, this essay is an expanded take on the concept, but is too new to be eligible for this year's EA Review.

Which are better, short-term or long-term organizations?

That's a perfectly fine attitude to have! In that case I would likely advice donating to short-term charities rather than long-term ones which are more speculative. I don't have as much experience with the former myself, and so have to defer to e.g. GiveWell's recommended charities and the like.

Also, if you discover in a few years that you're more or less risk-averse than you'd thought, you can still reconsider where to donate.

Finally, if you care about getting as much "bang for your buck" for your EA donations, keep a look out for ~yearly recurring d... (read more)

Which are better, short-term or long-term organizations?

Asking which is "better" seems like a false question, a type error.

The "gamble" framing works better. Donating to a short-term charity is equivalent to taking a very-high-probability bet for a comparatively but not absolutely small impact (e.g. distributing malaria nets to prevent malaria infections), which gives your donation moderate expected value (EV). Conversely, long-term charities are more speculative but also more ambitious, so donating to them is like taking a low-probability bet for a comparatively bigger payout (e.g. averting extinction).

From my... (read more)

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. What you said makes a lot of sense, but I just feel that the future is inherently unpredictable and I don't think I can handle the risk factor so much.
Effective Altruism: The First Decade (Forum Review)

What's the copyright situation here? If a crosspost is just a link to a post outside the EA forum, that's one thing; but if it involves copying the entire text to the forum, crossposting presumably requires the permission of the author.

8Aaron Gertler6mo
Yes, you shouldn't crosspost the entire text of something without an author's permission. But I think you can go beyond a link and share a brief excerpt of basically anything — paper abstracts are public, book reviews often quote extended sections of a book, etc. In cases where the Forum's team has crossposted full articles, we check in with the author before doing so (e.g. for the Replacing Guilt sequence). Realistically, though, we've had hundreds of things crossposted here by other users and have only had complaints in two cases I can remember — in both cases, when a private Google Doc was shared without the consent of all the people who'd been working on it. So we don't proactively remove types of content that seem very safe (e.g. posts from bloggers in the EA community who share all their content for free on their blogs), though we would remove something like a link to a pirated book if we became aware of it.
Make a $100 donation into $200 (or more)

I'm interested in directing more matched donations towards MIRI via donation trading with others who would not counterfactually donate to MIRI by themselves. As for myself, I'm from the Less Wrong cluster and so mostly care about x-risk stuff and meta stuff and would e.g. not counterfactually donate to animal charities.

After the trade, we could share screenshots of the confirmation email received after donating, to confirm that the trade has taken place.

If you're interested, send me a message. I expect the remaining matching funds to deplete within the nex... (read more)

Make a $100 donation into $200 (or more)

To spare some others the hassle, while donating by bank is supposedly free of fees, the add-a-bank process asks for a "bank routing number", which as far as I can tell is a US-only concept, so if you're from outside the US you'll have to donate by another method instead.

EDIT: this didn't work (the transfer got reverted from Wise back to Revolut). It might be possible to use Wise (formerly TransferWise). I've done it; it seems to have gone through on but not left my Wise account yet. First you have to add cash to your USD balance (I did this using Revolut to minimise conversion losses), then you get a routing number and account number on the "Inside the US" tab of "Your USD account details"; you can then use this to add the bank account to (which takes a few hours; you need to confirm the amounts of a couple of small test transactions they send).
Make a $100 donation into $200 (or more)

Thanks for posting this. Have donated. For 3 donations, I got 3x100$ matched, plus 25$ from the referal link, plus 3x10$ for ostensibly "sharing" donations, plus 3$ from "liking" donations, or 358$ in matching funds for 300$ donated, which comes to 119% in matching minus maybe 2.3% in credit card fees.

Half-assing it with everything you've got

@Aaron_Gertler: FYI, you've rehosted Nate's Replacing Guilt series here on the EA forum. I figured this would be useful when I wanted to read the essays but the Minding Our Way website seemed to be down (unsure if temporary or permanent).

Unfortunately, the images embedded in the posts were not rehosted on the EA forum but still hotlink to the Minding Our Way website. This is suboptimal, since now the images are also down.

When one posts on the Less Wrong forum, images are (re?)hosted on their own content delivery system. IIRC the EA forum runs on the same software (?), so maybe there's a way to re-host stuff here? I don't know about the technical details, but the LW mod team might know.