So perhaps the idea behind your first bullet point from the Economist is that a balanced power dynamic reduces either side's credence that conflict will help their position?
Yes, that's right!
And the follow up points about China's economic influence tilt the balance in China's favour, thereby raising again the chances of conflict?
Yes, but it's more like China's economic influence has tilted the balance in China's favour for some years now (i.e. Belt & Road Initiative). It's only recently with AUKUS that there's more of a balance betwee... (read more)
Key takeaways from The Economist's latest briefing:
Hi Alexander, thanks for writing this up!
Some context. I used to use Anki for 1-2 years. Completed the "Learning How to Learn" MOOC and read the book it was based on. Taught 13-16 year olds math and English for 2 years. Conducted EA presentations in Malaysia and previously in Singapore. Currently running EA Virtual Programs (I noticed that you're in the intro program!). FYI, my opinions are mine and not CEA's.
In conjunction with "learning how to learn better", "learning how to prioritise which learning strategy works for specific scenarios" see... (read more)
I think this sounds right! This makes me feel like we should also pay particular attention to making the facilitator experience is great too. Organising local intro EA programs can also be a great Task Y candidate.
I'm interested in running a local in-person program at my university from September to October with the virtual program as overflow capacity, in case our capacity for in-person cohorts isn't enough to accept all quality applicants. Would that setup be possible?
Yes, just direct people who are not able to join your local program to EA VP's website! And tell them to state in the application form that they want to be in a cohort with other people from the same uni.
Also, is there a reason that the program is no longer called a fellowship?
I spo... (read more)
This might just be an extension of the "community building" aptitudes, but here's another potential aptitude.
"Education and training" aptitudes
Basic profile: helping people absorb crucial ideas and the right skills efficiently, so that we can reduce talent/skills bottlenecks in key areas.
Introductory EA program, in-depth EA fellowship, The Precipice reading group, AI safety programmes, alternative protein programmes, operations skills retreat, various workshops organised in EAGs/EAGxs, etc
How to try developing this aptitude:
I'll split these into t... (read more)
Looking at the comments, it seems like CEA has changed a lot over the years! This may be too broad, but in CEA's list of team values, what has CEA as a whole done well in? And which ones do you think the team wants to prioritise improving on?
You've made some good points that I didn't get to write in our forum post, and I've made an edit to direct readers to your comment.
Looking at your methodology though, it seems as if you were attempting to essentially redo EA cause prioritisation research to date from scratch in a short timeframe?My guess of the most useful process would have been to just take some of the most commonly / widely recommended EA cause areas (and maybe a couple of other contenders) and try to clarify how they seem more or less promising in the Malaysian context specifically.If you agree with my characterisation of your process, with the benefit of hindsight, would you recommend that other national
Looking at your methodology though, it seems as if you were attempting to essentially redo EA cause prioritisation research to date from scratch in a short timeframe?
My guess of the most useful process would have been to just take some of the most commonly / widely recommended EA cause areas (and maybe a couple of other contenders) and try to clarify how they seem more or less promising in the Malaysian context specifically.
If you agree with my characterisation of your process, with the benefit of hindsight, would you recommend that other national
Hi Zeshen! I'll be answering you from my own personal capacity, so my views are not EA Malaysia's.
I'm wondering if we have good reliable statistics on causes of deaths in the country (death being a proxy for suffering), and we could look into the categories of avoidable deaths (e.g. curable illnesses)
For health specific statistics, I've used information from IHME. For animal consumption, I've used data from FAO.
and whether those areas are receiving enough support / funding.
It's a bit tough finding exact information about this. I did find one e... (read more)
Hi Brian! Thank for your response. I'll be using "we" (as a team) to address most of your comments, and "I" at the end to address one point.
I think it would be a lot better though if you had "problem profiles" like 80,000 Hours's for those causes you listed, especially the top 2-4 causes.
Yes if there is a case for conducting further research, we are definitely considering deeper research in the top causes, and producing “problem profiles”.
Or if not making full problem profiles, putting a few sentences or bullets about t
Hi Misha, sorry for the late reply. Thanks for the heads up! I've added this feedback for a future draft.
I appreciate the feedback Peter!
That's great! Thanks again for the feedback.
In regards to what I meant by "short term AI capabilities", I was referring to prosaic AGI - potentially powerful AI systems that uses current techniques instead of hypothetical new ideas surrounding how intelligence works. When you mentioned "I estimated a very rough 50% chance of AGI within 20 years, and 30-40% chance that it would be using 'essentially current techniques'", I took it as prosaic AGI too, but you might mean something else.
I've reread all the write-ups, and you're right that they don't imply that "research on short term AI capabilities i