North Korea’s dire food shortage may become more acute

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The rainy season has finally started in North Korea, and not a moment too soon. Months of clear skies have left fields arid and crops undernourished, raising the risk of failed harvests (see chart). This is grave news. The country is experiencing chronic food-insecurity problems so severe that its leader, Kim Jong Un, last year drew a comparison to a famine in the 1990s that killed at least 200,000 and perhaps as many as 3m people. By the regime’s own admission, this year’s drought is the second-worst since records began in 1981.

Trustworthy information is hard to come by, but a report by the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) gives some indication of how bad things may be. It uses snow coverage and rainfall to assess the potential damage to the harvest. Snow is important for all three of North Korea’s planting seasons. During the harsh winter it insulates crops sown in autumn. In spring it waters both these crops and those planted in March. And it ensures that soil is sufficiently moist for summer crops, which are the most important for meeting North Koreans’ nutritional needs. Though slightly better than last year, snow coverage has been markedly below average.

After a stormy March, spring rains ceased. April and May saw only 70% of the average rainfall, with the shortfall particularly affecting the southern regions where much of North Korea’s cereal is grown. Deprived of water, crops produce poorer harvests. The drought probably delayed the planting of maize and rice, the country’s two most important food staples. Combined with North Korea’s poor water management, an already precarious food situation is likely to get worse.

Most of North Korea’s rainfall comes in the summer, so there is still hope of recovery. But it is far from assured. And the summer storms have already brought severe flooding. The WFP also warns that heatwaves may be on the way, putting crops at further risk. With cross-border trade still severely constrained because of covid-19, help from abroad will be limited. The severity of North Korea’s own outbreak of the disease remains shrouded by the state’s false reporting, but at the very least restrictions on travel and markets make it harder to put food on the table. The monsoons will inspire trepidation, but also some hope for the harvest. Experience will have taught North Koreans not to be optimistic. ■