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Lab-grown meat approved for pet food in the UK  "The UK has become the first European country to approve putting lab-grown meat in pet food. Regulators cleared the use of chicken cultivated from animal cells, which lab meat company Meatly is planning to sell to manufacturers. The company says the first samples of its product will go on sale as early as this year, but it would only scale its production to reach industrial volumes in the next three years." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c19k0ky9v4yo
I think it is good to have some ratio of upvoted/agreed : downvotes/disagreed posts in your portfolio. I think if all of your posts are upvoted/high agreeance then you're either playing it too safe or you've eaten the culture without chewing first.
A couple takes from Twitter on the value of merch and signaling that I think are worth sharing here: 1)  2) 
I wanted to figure out where EA community building has been successful. Therefore, I asked Claude to use EAG London 2024 data to assess the relative strength of EA communities across different countries. This quick take is the result.  The report presents an analysis of factors influencing the strength of effective altruism communities across different countries. Using attendance data from EA Global London 2024 as a proxy for community engagement, we employed multiple regression analysis to identify key predictors of EA participation. The model incorporates geographic, economic, linguistic, and social factors, explaining 52.3% of the variance in per capita attendance.  Methodology Data Source * Per capita attendance at EAG London 2024 for 62 countries Variables 1. Geographic proximity (distance from London, UK) 2. Economic development (GDP per capita) 3. English language proficiency 4. Income inequality (Gini coefficient) 5. Youth population percentage 6. Social media penetration 7. Religiosity 8. Trust in institutions 9. Philanthropic culture Analytical Approach Multiple regression analysis with per capita EAG London 2024 attendance as the dependent variable Key Findings 1. Model Performance: * R-squared value: 0.523 * The model explains 52.3% of the variance in per capita attendance 2. Significant Predictors: * GDP per capita (positive relationship) * Distance from London (negative relationship) * Philanthropic culture (positive relationship) * Social media penetration (positive relationship) * English proficiency (positive relationship) 3. Non-significant Factors: * Gini coefficient * Youth population percentage * Religiosity * Trust in institutions 4. Top 10 Countries with Strongest EA Communities (based on positive residuals): 1. Switzerland 2. Norway 3. Netherlands 4. Estonia 5. Sweden 6. Singapore 7. Finland 8. Czech Republic 9. Australia 10. Ireland Interpretation of Results 1. Economic Factors: GDP per capita emerges as the strongest predictor of EA engagement, suggesting that economic development plays a crucial role in fostering EA communities. 2. Geographic Considerations: Distance from London negatively correlates with engagement, which is expected given that the event was held in London. This finding should be interpreted cautiously: a) It may reflect the ease of attending for nearby countries rather than overall EA engagement. b) The strong performance of some distant countries (e.g., Australia, Singapore) suggests that highly engaged EA communities can overcome geographic barriers. 3. Cultural Factors: A country's philanthropic culture strongly predicts EA engagement, highlighting the importance of pre-existing charitable inclinations. 4. Technological Infrastructure: Social media penetration positively correlates with EA engagement, underscoring the role of online connectivity in community building. 5. Language: English proficiency remains a significant factor, though its impact is less pronounced than economic and cultural variables. Limitations 1. Proxy Measure: EAG attendance may not fully capture all forms of EA engagement. 2. Single Time Point: The analysis is based on one conference in one year, potentially missing temporal variations. 3. Unmeasured Variables: Other factors not included in the model may influence EA community strength. 4. Linear Model Assumptions: The analysis assumes linear relationships, potentially missing complex interactions or non-linear effects. 5. Host Country Bias: The UK's attendance is likely inflated due to hosting the event, potentially skewing overall results.
Do you like SB 1047, the California AI bill? Do you live outside the state of California? If you answered "yes" to both these questions, you can e-mail your state legislators and urge them to adopt a similar bill for your state. I've done this and am currently awaiting a response; it really wasn't that difficult. All it takes is a few links to good news articles or opinions about the bill and a paragraph or two summarizing what it does and why you care about it. You don't have to be an expert on every provision of the bill, nor do you have to have a group of people backing you. It's not nothing, but at least for me it was a lot easier than it sounded like it would be. I'll keep y'all updated on if I get a response.

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James Herbert posted a Quick Take

I wanted to figure out where EA community building has been successful. Therefore, I asked Claude to use EAG London 2024 data to assess the relative strength of EA communities across different countries. This quick take is the result. 

The report presents an analysis...

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Note: this post is a (minorly) edited version of a new 80,000 Hours problem profile.

As the searingly bright white light of the first nuclear blast faded away, the world entered a new age.

Since July 16, 1945, humanity has had access to technology capable of destroying civilisation.

Amidst rising tensions and the return of war to Europe, we’re potentially seeing the start of a new nuclear arms race.

Meanwhile, the community of brilliant minds who worked throughout the Cold War to prevent nuclear catastrophe has all but disappeared.

And that’s a problem.

It’s a problem because the threat of nuclear destruction is still with us. But that also means that by addressing that threat, we could make humanity more likely to endure.

Summary

It’s very plausible that there will be a nuclear war this century. If that does happen, there’s a reasonable chance that war would cause some kind of nuclear winter, potentially...

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You'll get a weekly email with the best posts from the past week. The Forum team selects the posts to feature based on personal preference and Forum popularity, and also adds some announcements and a classic post.

Hi everyone,

I really hesitated to bring this into the EA Forum, because of how potentially polarizing the issue is, but I trust the folks in this group for recommendations, and I am struggling to make a decision.

I allot my money to various causes, and I would like to donate...

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This is just speculation, but I wonder if it's more cost-effective to donate to a Senate candidate who is also running in a Presidential swing state? Maybe Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Arizona?

It seems plausible that a strong Senate candidate could inspire voters to get out and vote for a President they're not enthusiastic about - essentially a 'reverse coattails' effect (though I don't think there's particularly strong evidence for this)

1
Phib
I empathize with the desire for the request which is why I’m responding, but yeah, unsure the EA forum is the right place for the presidential election. I wonder if one were to make an argument for a candidate strictly across causes which are more EA consensus/funded by Open Phil. X candidate is good for animal welfare, global health and development, and pandemic and AI catastrophic/existential risk. And here are the policies and here is the total analysis across these which differentially directs this many GiveDirectly rated dollars/QALYs. But yeah, seems hard. Also open to just being wrong here.
1
quila
Relevant to x-risks, quoting Zvi:

Highlights

  1. Destabilization could be the biggest setback for great power conflict, AI, bio-risk, and climate disruption.
  2. Polarization plays a role in nearly every causal pathway leading to destabilization of the United States, and there is no indication polarization
...
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6
Geoffrey Miller
Well, the main asymmetry here is that the Left-leaning 'mainstream' press doesn't understand or report the Right's concerns about Leftist authoritarianism, but it generates and amplifies the Left's concerns about 'far Right authoritarianism'. So, any EAs who follow 'mainstream' journalism (e.g. CNN, MSNBC, NY Times, WaPo) will tend to repeat their talking points, their analyses, and their biases. Most reasonable observers, IMHO, understand that the US 'mainstream' press has become very left-leaning and highly biased over the last few decades, especially since 2015, and it is functioning largely as a propaganda wing of the Democratic Party. (Consider, for example, the 'mainstream' media's systematic denial of Biden's dementia for the last several years, until the symptoms became too painfully obvious, to everyone, to ignore. Such journalists would never have run cover for Trump, if he'd been developing dementia; they would have been demanding his resignation years ago.) In any case, the partisan polarization on such issues is, perhaps, precisely why EAs should be very careful not to wade into these debates unless they have a very good reason for doing so, a lot of political knowledge and wisdom, an ability to understand both sides, and a recognition that these political differences are probably neither neglected nor tractable. If we really want to make a difference in politics, I think we should be nudging the relevant decision-makers, policy wonks, staffers, and pundits into developing a better understanding of the global catastrophic risks that we face from nuclear war, bioweapons, and AI.

It's unclear what your specific disagreements with my comment are. 

Take what I think is the most crucial point I made: that there doesn't seem to be a democratic country in which a major candidate refused to accept defeat in a national election.

Which of these 3 best represents your position?

  • Trump did not refuse to accept the results of the 2020 election or try to subvert it, that's just a leftist media narrative. If you talk to him, he'll say he accepts that Biden won fair and square.
  • Trump did try to subvert the election or refuse to accept defeat, bu
... (read more)

This post is written in a spirit of constructive criticism. It's phrased fairly abstractly, in part because it's a sensitive topic, but I welcome critiques and comments below. The post is structured in terms of three claims about the strategic dynamics of AI safety efforts...

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Strong upvote. I have experienced problems with this too.


Actionable responses:
1. Build trust. Be clear why you are seeking power/access. Reveal your motivations and biases. Preoffer to answer uncomfortable questions.
2. Provide robust information. Reference expert opinion and papers. Show pictures/videos of physical evidence.
3. The biggest barrier for most people to process AI extinction risk is: the emotional resilience to process that they may die.  Anything that lowers this barrier helps. In my experience, people grasp extinction risk better when they "discover" it from trends and examples, rather than are directly told.

I haven't shared this post with other relevant parties – my experience has been that private discussion of this sort of thing is more paralyzing than helpful. I might change my mind in the resulting discussion, but, I prefer that discussion to be public.

 

I think 80...

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We used to list roles that seemed more tangentially safety-related, but because of our reduced confidence in OpenAI


This misses aspects of what used to be 80k's position:

❝ In fact, we think it can be the best career step for some of our readers to work in labs, even in non-safety roles. That’s the core reason why we list these roles on our job board. 
– Benjamin Hilton, February 2024

❝ Top AI labs are high-performing, rapidly growing organisations. In general, one of the best ways to gain career capital is to go and work with any high-performing tea... (read more)

From Darren Margolias: I'm the Executive Director of Beast Philanthropy, the charity founded by the world’s most popular YouTuber MrBeast. 

We recently collaborated with GiveDirectly on the video below. You can read background the project from our LinkedIn here and ...

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Sorry I missed that point: a 20 minute video might indeed be significantly higher CPV and because it's not an ad might be favoured higher on that point too. 

All in all it's hard to say. I suppose GD will have some numbers on increased traffic and increased donations versus baseline, but this will be quite hard to measure correctly even with tracking in place.