@MHR🔸 @Laura Duffy, @AbsurdlyMax and I have been raising money for the EA Animal Welfare Fund on Twitter and Bluesky, and today is the last day to donate! If we raise $3k more today I will transform my room into an EA paradise complete with OWID charts across the walls, a literal bednet, a shrine, and more (and of course post all this online)! Consider donating if and only if you wouldn't use the money for a better purpose!    See some more fun discussion and such by following the replies and quote-tweets here: 

Holding powerful people accountable.  Reposted from a twitter thread. I have made a number of prediction markets holding powerful people accountable[1]. Powerful people (and their friends) really can exert a lot of pressure with an angry email or dm (n = 2-5). If you are powerful, please consider how big your muscles are before you give pushback I have quite thick skin, but I don't know whether such people are going around dming everyone like this. Likewise, this is a flaw I sometimes have and I have learned to be very light tough on pushback to non-friends. Strangely, the kinds of people (or their friends) who message me are often close enough to pay lip service to "good epistemic practices". It really isn't very fun to hold powerful people accountable. I get little thanks for it and burn valuable relationship capital. If you are powerful you probably have to be a bit more careful than you think. Perhaps make this clear to your allies also. I can't deny I take some pleasure from it, it feels good to be a martyr, but I think it performs a good social function also. But many who criticise would, I think, say they are open to criticism or accountability. Seemingly however, only on their own terms. Again. I likely have this flaw too. I've had at least one anon feedback that I pushed back too hard against criticism. It's easy to do, and I do not want to behave like that. 1. ^ I do not necessarily not endorse having created all these markets. In general I think the markets I create are good, but some I am unsure of.

Anyone know whether there will be an EA Forum Wrapped for 2024?

Predict your year in 2025: a website for tracking your forecasts 2024 is over. Did your life this year align with your expectations? What came out of nowhere and threw off your predictions? Did your actions align with your intentions? What fresh goals are you planning? We've built predict your year in 2025, a space for you to write down your predictions for the year. At the end of your year, you can return, resolve your predictions as YES, NO or AMBIGUOUS, and reflect. We've written some starter questions to make it super easy to get started predicting your year. You can tweak these and write your own - those will likely be the most important questions for you. You can use this tool to predict your personal life in 2025 - your goals, relationships, work, health, and adventures. If you like, you can share your predictions with friends - for fun, for better predictions, and for motivation to achieve your goals this year! You can also use this tool to predict questions relevant to your team or organisation in the coming year - your team strategy, performance, big financial questions, and potentially disruptive black swans. You can share your predictions with your team and let everyone contribute, to build common knowledge about expectations and pool your insights. If you use Slack, you can also share your page of predictions in a Slack channel (e.g. #2025-predictions or #strategy), so everyone can easily discuss in threads and return to it throughout the year. I hope you have a good time thinking about your coming year, and that it sparks some great conversations with friends and teammates. Happy new year!

HEAs In my eyes, I have not made an effective impact yet in any cause area, especially biosecurity or public health, and yet I think compared to most 18 year olds I have started making choices that will set me up to have an effective career and mindset, plus I have been gaining comm building skills throughout my work. Next year @Jian Xin Lim🔹 kindly offered for me to take over EABath (when I start uni) and I also help out a bit at Leaf. And it got me thinking   What is the ideal outcome of a HEA? Are all HEAs on the same path? Say someone took on all reasoning, and chose earn to give and donated millions to GiveWell (think similar to FTX without any integrity issues in terms of involvement), if all EAs did that we'd get diminishing returns on the top charities, we'd lose the community, other cause areas may suffer and also it just would feel a bit of an afterthought. And yet would we consider that individual a HEA if his reasoning for all the earning and donation aligned with the 4 tenets and had that idea of helping others effectively? Compared to someone who maybe is against animal welfare issues. If that person earned to give as a head of factories with poor conditions, they may lower costs and conditions to donate more (let's say purely to donate more) whilst the person concerned with animal welfare who is also an EA may try to do the opposite. So are they both HEAs? Do we have a metric?   Just some rough thoughts swirling around, nothing concrete or important but would love to hear