Funding Strategy Week
Marginal Funding Week
Donation Election
Pledge Highlight
Donation Celebration
Nov 4 - 10
Funding Strategy Week
This week, we are encouraging content around a range of important funding considerations. Read more.
Nov 12 - 18
Marginal Funding Week
A week for organisations to explain what they would do with marginal funding. Read more.
Nov 18 - Dec 3
Donation Election
A crowd-sourced pot of funds will be distributed amongst three charities based on your votes. Find out more.
Dec 16 - 22
Pledge Highlight
A week to post about your experience with pledging, and to discuss the value of pledging. Read more.
Dec 23 - 31
Donation Celebration
When the donation celebration starts, you’ll be able to add a heart to the banner showing that you’ve done your annual donations.
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A thing that seems valuable but is not talked about much is organizations that bring talent into the EA/impact-focused charity world, vs. re-using people already in the movement, vs. turning people off the movement. The difference in these effects seems both significant and pretty consistent within an organization. I think Founders Pledge is a good example of an organization that, I think, net brings talent into the effective charities world. I often see their hires, post-leaving FP, go on to pretty impactful other roles that it’s not clear they would have done absent their experience working for FP. I wish more organizations did this vs. re-using/turning people off.
As earn to giver, I found contributing to funding diversification challenging Jeff Kaufmann posted a different version of the same argument earlier than me. Some have argued that earning to give can contribute to funding diversification. Having a few dozen mid-sized donors, rather than one or two very large donors, would make the financial position of an organization more secure. It allows them to plan for the future and not worry about fundraising all the time. As earn to giver, I can be one of those mid-sized donors. I have tried. However, it is challenging. First of all, I don't have expertise, and don't have much time to build the expertise. I spend most of my time on my day job, which has nothing to do with any cause I care about. Any research must be done in my free time. This is fine, but it has some cost. This is time I could have spent on career development, talking to others about effective giving, or living more frugally. Motivation is not the issue, at least for me. I've found the research extremely rewarding and intellectually stimulating to do. Yet, fun doesn't necessarily translate to effectiveness. I've seen peer earn to givers just defer to GiveWell or other charity evaluators without putting much thought into it. This is great, but isn't there more? Others said that they talked to an individual organization, thought "sounds reasonable", and transferred the money. I fell for that trap too! There is a lot at stake. It's about hard-earned money that has the potential to help large numbers of people and animals in dire need. Unfortunately, I don't trust my own non-expert judgment to do this. So I find myself donating to funds, and then the funding is centralized again. If others do the same, charities will have to rely on one grantmaker again, rather than a diverse pool of donors. Ideas What would help to address this issue? Here are a few ideas, some of them are already happening. * funding circles. Note that most funding circles I know r
Why should you donate to the Forum’s Donation Election Fund? * It could change the way you donate, for the better: We all have limited information to decide how we should donate. Giving via the Donation Election Fund let’s you benefit from the collectively held information of the Forum’s users, as well as up to date facts from the marginal funding posts from organisations. If enough users take part in the voting, you won’t have to read all of the marginal funding posts to benefit from the information they contain.  * It could boost engagement in the election, which leads to: * More funding for charities: Last year, the donation election and surrounding events moved a lot of money. In our squiggle model, we get this distribution: * The headline “$30k raised through the election” does not represent all of the money raised because of the Forum’s events. But giving money to the election fund will likely increase the attention on the Forum, the amount of effort that organisations and individuals put into posts etc… in a way which will increase the amount raised overall.  * Influencing other’s donations for the better: In the EA survey (post coming soon) we saw that the donation election had influenced people’s donation choices. We also saw in the comments on last years votes that specific posts had influenced donations, especially, shifting people towards animal welfare organisations, and increasing donations to rethink priorities.  Also, maybe you just want to get these sweet sweet rewards. 
The value of re-directing non-EA funding to EA orgs might still be under-appreciated. While we obsess over (rightly so) where EA funding should be going, shifting money from one EA cause to another "better" ne might often only make an incremental difference, while moving money from a non-EA pool to fund cost-effective interventions might make an order of magnitude difference. There's nothing new to see here. High impact foundations are being cultivated to shift donor funding to effective causes, the “Center for effective aid policy”  was set up (then shut down) to shift governement money to more effective causes, and many great EAs work in public service jobs partly to redirect money. The Lead exposure action fund spearheaded by OpenPhil is hopefully re-directing millions to a fantastic cause as we speak. I would love to see an analysis (might have missed it) which estimates the “cost-effectiveness” of redirecting a dollar into a 10x or 100x more cost-effective intervention, How much money/time would it be worth spending to redirect money this way? Also I'd like to get my head around how much might the working "cost-effectiveness" of an org improve if its budget shifted from 10% non-EA funding to 90% non- EA funding. There are obviously costs to roping in non-EA funding. From my own experience it often takes huge time and energy. One thing I’ve appreciated about my 2 attempts applying for EA adjacent funding is just how straightforward It has been – probably an order of magnitude less work than other applications.  Here’s a few practical ideas to how we could further redirect funds 1. EA orgs could put more effort into helping each other access non-EA money. This is already happening through the AIM cluster, but I feel the scope could be widened to other orgs, and co-ordination could be improved a lot without too much effort. I’m sure pools of money are getting missed all the time. For example I sure hope we're doing whatever we can through our networks to hel
Current takeaways from the 2024 US election <> forecasting community. First section in Forecasting newsletter: US elections, posting here because it has some overlap with EA. 1. Polymarket beat legacy institutions at processing information, in real time and in general. It was just much faster at calling states, and more confident earlier on the correct outcome. 2. The OG prediction markets community, the community which has been betting on politics and increasing their bankroll since PredictIt, was on the wrong side of 50%—1, 2, 3, 4, 5. It was the democratic, open-to-all nature of it, the Frenchman who was convinced that mainstream polls were pretty tortured and bet ~$45M, what moved Polymarket to the right side of 50/50. 3. Polls seem like a garbage in garbage out kind of situation these days. How do you get a representative sample? The answer is maybe that you don't. 4. Polymarket will live. They were useful to the Trump campaign, which has a much warmer perspective on crypto. The federal government isn't going to prosecute them, nor bettors. Regulatory agencies, like the CFTC and the SEC, which have taken such a prominent role in recent editions of this newsletter, don't really matter now, as they will be aligned with financial innovation rather than opposed to it. 5. NYT/Siena really fucked up with their last poll and the coverage of it. So did Ann Selzer. Some prediction market bettors might have thought that you could do the bounded distrust, but in hindsight it turns out that you can't. Looking back, to the extent you trust these institutions, they can ratchet their deceptiveness (from misleading headlines, incomplete stories, incomplete quotes out of context, not reporting on important stories, etc.) for clicks and hopium, to shape the information landscape for a managerial class that... will no longer be in power in America. 6. Elon Musk and Peter Thiel look like geniuses. In contrast Dustin Moskovitz couldn't get SB 1047 passed despite being the s