This post was prompted by the comments on my proposed updated 80K Hours Climate Change Problem Profile.
It’s important to make it clear up front that the surprising truth is that there is genuinely very little quantitative research into the impacts of climate change of 4C and above. The research which does exist is necessarily limited in scope and makes a large number of assumptions - many of which will tend to undervalue the overall impact of climate change.
In this post I examine four previous attempts to examine aspects of the impact of climate change and/or the cost-effectiveness of c... (Read more)
In this article I calculate my subjective probability estimate that the problem of wild animal suffering is the most important cause area in effective altruism. I will use a Fermi estimate to calculate lower and upper bounds of the probability that research about interventions to improve wild animal welfare should be given top priority. A Fermi estimate breaks the probability up into several factors such that the estimate of the total probability is the product of the estimates of the factors. This method is known in superforecasting to increase accuracy or predictive power.
With the lower and... (Read more)
In a study initiated by SoGive, we sought to understand to what extent study participants care about (or place moral value on) people in the far future. The study sought to understand both stated opinions on the topic at an abstract level, stated opinions taking into account a concrete (but hypothetical) example, and (in another attempt to make this more concrete) considering the choice to donate to global poverty versus climate change charities. The study was intended to support SoGive’s research on charities.
This paper also introduces a new segmentation of presentdayist/longte... (Read more)
The Procreation Asymmetry consists of these two claims together:
However, if a bad existence can be an "existential harm" (according to c... (Read more)
Journalists regularly contact individuals, groups, and organizations who are involved in the effective altruism space. At first glance, opportunities to speak with journalists may seem like a good way to spread information about important work and ideas. However, we have found that they can also be a good way to create misunderstandings or negative impressions of EA or of particular projects. Because evaluating and engaging in successful media engagements requires specialized skills and knowledge, it’s important to seek advice or resources, proceed carefully, and be prepared.
Quick takea... (Read more)
So here is an idea
An application which allows users to play games against eachother.
Which papers published in the last decade most influenced your thinking?
This question is inspired by today's Future Perfect newsletter (signup link), see answer below. Dylan Matthews restricted himself to papers in "economics, political science, sociology, psychology, and philosophy", but I'd be interested in papers from any domain.
At the time of this talk (2016), Helen Toner was a senior research analyst at the Open Philanthropy Project. Here, she shares management lessons — such as holding regular one-on-ones and soliciting feedback — that she learned in her first year at GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project.
As I’m sure you all know by now, effective altruism [EA] is about doing the most good you can with the res... (Read more)
I recently joined the Institute for Globally Distributed Open Research and Education (IGDORE). They have decided to invite groups interested in metascience (specifically open and replicable science) to create a space on their forum. I think a few EAs are interested in aspects of improving the scientific process, and wonder if anybody would be interested in creating an EA space there?
I wouldn't suggest that this replace the EA forum in anyway, but could act as space where EAs interested in this area could engage with non-EAs who have similar (metascience) interests.
‘Included in thi... (Read more)
I'm organizing a preconference on 'The Evolutionary Psychology of Existential Risk' for the Human Behavior and Evolution Society (HBES) conference next June 24-27, 2020 in Detroit, with 4-6 speakers.
I'd like to include some EA experts who are interested in the psychological challenges associated with understanding & managing X-risks.
Any suggestions of possible speakers who might be interested?
Feel free to reply here or to email me directly, firstname.lastname@example.org. Thanks!
This article is about the little-noticed fact that happiness has been climbing in the UK for 20 years (despite endless bad news), and misery has almost disappeared. And why this might be.
It also outlines measuring happiness and using it to guide policies, as governments are starting to do (and arguably so too should Effective Altruism).
All comments very welcome, particularly from experts in the field.
I’m not entirely sure that there is really no other official source for local group funding. Please correct me in the comments.
It seems that by now, CEA's community building grants programme is the only source of funding for local group leaders and community builders world-wide. (The EA meta fund distributed some funding to community builders in earlier rounds, although the bulk of the money went to other targets. In the latest round, they referred community builders to the community building grants programme and they plan on continue doing so in the future.)
According to CEAȁ... (Read more)
I think there are many questions whose answers would be useful for technical AGI safety research, but which will probably require expertise outside AI to answer. In this post I list 30 of them, divided into four categories. Feel free to get in touch if you’d like to discuss these questions and why I think they’re important in more detail. I personally think that making progress on the ones in the first category is particularly vital, and plausibly tractable for researchers from a wide range of academic backgrounds.
Studying and understanding safety problems