I'm a doctor working towards the dream that every human will have access to high quality healthcare. I'm a medic and director of OneDay Health, which has launched 35 simple but comprehensive nurse-led health centers in remote rural Ugandan Villages. A huge thanks to the EA Cambridge student community in 2018 for helping me realise that I could do more good by focusing on providing healthcare in remote places.
Understanding the NGO industrial complex, and how aid really works (or doesn't) in Northern Uganda
Global health knowledge
This is fantastic thank you! Have already sent it to someone considering dong a CBA
"For any purpose other than an example calculation, never use a point estimate. Always do all math in terms of confidence intervals. All inputs should be ranges or probability distributions, and all outputs should be presented as confidence intervals."
I weakly disagree with this "never" statement, as I think there is value in doing basic cost-benefit analysis without confidence intervals, especially for non mathsy indivuals or small orgs who want to look at potential cost effectiveness of their own or other's interventions. I wouldn't want to put some people off by setting this as a "minimum" bar. I also think that simple "lower and upper bound" ranges can sometimes be an easier way to do estimates, without strictly needing to calculate a confidence interval.
In saying that when, big organisations do CBA's to actually make decisions or move large amounts of money, or for any academic purpose then yes I agree confindence intervals are what's needed!
I would also say that for better or worse (probably for worse) the point estimate is by far the most practically discussed and used application of any CBA so I think its practially important to put more effort into getting your point estimate as accurate as possible, then it is to make sure you're range is accurate.
Nice job again.
Thanks Jason - those are really good points. In general maybe this wasn't such a useful thing to bring up at this point in time, and in general its good that she is campaigning for funding to be restored. I do think the large exaggeration though means this a bit more than a nitpick.
I've been looking for her saying the actual quote, and have struggled to find it. A lot of news agencies have used the same quote I used above with similar context. Mrs. Byanyima even reposted on her twitter the exact quote above...
"AIDS-related deaths in the next 5 years will increase by 6.3 million"
I also didn't explain properly but even at the most generous reading of something like After 5 years deaths will increase by 6.3 million if we get zero funding for HIV medication, the number is still wildly exaggurated. Besides the obvious point that many people would self fund the medications if there was zero funding available (I would guess 30%-60%), and that even short periods of self funded treatment (a few months) would greatly increase their lifespan, the 6.3 million is still incorrect at least by a factor of 2.
Untreated HIV in adults in the pre HAART era in Africa had something like an 80% survival rate (maybe even a little higher) 5 years after seroconversion, which would bring a mortality figure of 3.2 million dying in 5 years assuming EVERYONE on PEPFAR drugs remained untreated - about half the 6.3 million figure quoted. Here's a graph of mortality over time in the Pre HAART era. Its worth keeping in mind that our treatment of AIDS defining infections is far superior to what it was back then, which would keep people alive longer as well.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5784803/
And my 3.2 million figure doesn't take into account the not-insignificant number of people who would die within 5 years even while on ARVs which further reduces the extra deaths figure.
Also many countries like Uganda have about 1 years supply of medications left, so we should perhaps be considering the 10% mortality after 4 years of no medications rather than 20% at 5 in this calculation, which would halve the death numbers again.
So I still think the statement remains a long way off being accurate, even if we allow some wiggle room for wording like you rightly say we should.
The idea that no (or even few) Sub-Saharan African countres would stand in the gap for their most vulnerable people with HIV, abandoning them to horrendous sickness and death from HIV that would overwhelm their health systems shows lack of insight.
Countries simply can't afford to leave people with HIV completely high and dry, economically and politcally. HIV medication would be a priority for most African countries - either extra fundng would be allocated or money switched from other funds to HIV treatment. As much as governments aren't utilitarian, they know the disaster that would ensue if HIV medications were not given and their heallth systems were overwhelmed. AIDS is a horrible condition which lasts a long time and robs individuals and families of their productivity.
Granted care might be far worse. Funding for tests like viral load cold be cut, there might be disastrous medicaion stockouts. Hundreds of thousands or even more could die because of these USAID cuts. Funding for malaria, tuberculosis and other treatments might fall by the wayside but I believe for most countries HIV care would be a top priority.
There would be some countries that are either too poor or unstable where this might not happen. Countrie like South Sudan, DRC, Somalia - but I strongly believe that most countries would provide most people with HIV most of their treatment for free.
Besides this, given it is life saving I would estimate maybe half (uncertain) of peopl ewith HIV would buy their own medication if there was no other option - if the alternative is death their family would pool money to keep them alive.
Another minor point is that I think drug companies would likely hugely drop the cost of medication as well - otherwise they wouldn't be able to sell much of it.
Disclaimer: I think the instant USAID cuts are very harmful, they directly affect our organisation's wonderful nurses and our patients. I'm not endorsing the cuts, I just think exaggurating numbers when communicating for dramatic effect (or out of ignorance) is unhelpful and doesn't build trust in institutions like the WHO.
Sometimes the lack of understanding, or care in calulations from leading public health bodies befuddles me.
"The head of the United Nations' programme for tackling HIV/AIDS told the BBC the cuts would have dire impacts across the globe.
"AIDS related deaths in the next five years will increase by 6.3 million" if funding is not restored, UNAIDS executive director Winnie Byanyima said."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdd9p8g405no
There just isn't a planet on which AIDS related deaths would increase that much. In 2023 an estimated 630,000 people were estimated to have died from AIDS related deaths. The WHO estimates about 21 million Africans on HIV treatment. Maybe 5 million of these in South Africa aren't funded by USAID. Other countries like Kenya and Botswana also contribute to their own HIV treatment.
So out of those 16ish million on USAID funded treatment, over 1/3 of those would have to die in the next 3 years for that figure would be correct. The only scenario where this could happen is if all of these people went completely untreated, which means that no local government would come in at any stage. This scenario is impossible
I get that the UN HIV program want to put out scary numbers to put the pressure on the US and try and bring other funding in, but it still important to represent reality. Heads of public health institutions and their staff who do this kind of modelling should learn what a counterfactual is.
4. On the number of mosquitos front for a start I don’t like comments like “my takeways would probably be the same even if….” Multipliers can add up, and we’re trying to move towards accuracy so I think it can be an unhelpful copout to question how much any element of an analysis matters – Rethink Priorities said things like this a number of times during their moral weights project which was a small red flag for me.
I agree there’s no empirical research on the mosquito number front, but from my perspective having travelled around Africa and living in a grass thatched hut and sleeping under a mosquito net for the last 10 years, 24 mosquitos killed a day on average per net seems extremely unlikely. That would be something like 240 million mosquitos killed by nets alone every day in Uganda – which seems to me perhaps plausible but unlikely. From a distance I think you could have been more conservative with your “best guess”
I’ve already discussed the RP thing above thanks!
I think this is an interesting post and warrants discussion, but I ended up strongly downvoting because I don't want this to be the kind of discussion which is front and center on our public EA forum for external facing reasons and PR risk. This might well be the wrong response and many people might disagree with me on this which is fair enough.
I'll also flag that find the idea that saving poor kids' lives might be bad on the account of mosquito suffering makes me emotionally and almost physically squeamish, even if intellectually I think its an important discussion to have.
After flagging my biases, it still seems to me Vasco's analysis swings unnecessarily mosquito friendly, to the point where it almost feels motivated. I'm not saying it is motivated but there is a lack of "conservatism" or sanity checks in this estimate.
There's no thought of counterfactuals. Someone mentioned hat mosquitos will die anyway, and that could be painful too which is true. More to the point, without the nets to protect us other mosquito slaughtering options would be used and actually have been used as a kind of net alternative include...
- Indoor residual spraying, which slaughters mosquitos on mass with similar chemicals
- Mass poisoning of water bodies through chemicals (in the past DDT which surely caused animals higher in the food chain to suffer)
If AMF and the nets weren't doing their job, I would guess the alternatives might be at least as bad for mosquito welfare.
I agree, but personally I would put this in Pascalls mugging territory of tiny chances. I'm aware everyone's "Pascalls threshold" is different.
Ha I love this I will definitely check that simulator out nice one!