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Tuesday, October 27th 2020
Tue, Oct 27th 2020

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1seanrson2hHi all, I'm sorry if this isn't the right place to post. Please redirect me if there's somewhere else this should go. I'm posting on behalf of my friend, who is an aspiring AI researcher in his early 20's, and is looking to live with likeminded individuals. He currently lives in Southern California, but is open to relocating (preferably USA, especially California). Please message jeffreypythonclass+ea@gmail.com [jeffreypythonclass+ea@gmail.com] if you're interested!

Monday, October 26th 2020
Mon, Oct 26th 2020

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2AaronBoddy14hHow bad is it to exploit bees? I agree that taking action to improve the welfare of farmed bees is positive. But with other farmed animals such as chickens/pigs/cows, a significant goal to aim for is to ultimately bring fewer of those animals into existence in order to reduce overall suffering. But is that also the case for bee farming? Or do we instead want to increase the number of bees we farm because we need to increase commercial pollination services for a greater good? And if so, even if we weren't to intervene in bee welfare in any way, would we still be aiming to increase the number of farmed bees from a consequentialist point of view? Is it possible to calculate the net utility (positive or negative) from bringing one suffering bee into existence?

Sunday, October 25th 2020
Sun, Oct 25th 2020

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3AaronBoddy1dHow bad is Amazon? So there are a lot of reasons [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_Amazon] people don't like Amazon. It exploits its workers, it fights tax laws, it has a significant environmental impact etc. But is Amazon net-negative from a consequentialist point of view, or is there a net-positive impact of Amazon? My rough thinking is: * Jeff Bezos has projects such as Blue Origin which might be positive for longtermism. * He recently donated $10billion to Climate Change with the Bezos Earth Fund (and this may continue?). * He has been interested in some other short term philanthropy in the past. His ex-wife (who now has a lot of his money) has also signed the giving pledge (though Bezos himself hasn't). Like I think this argument is easier to make with someone like Elon Musk. There may be reasons people personally dislike him, but I think its relatively easy to argue that because of OpenAI, SpaceX and Tesla, that he is likely to have a significant net-positive impact on the world, particularly the long-term. I'm not sure really what I plan to do with the information. I'm not sure an "EA supports buying from Amazon" is particularly useful or accurate. It's just something that's played in the back of my mind a lot when I hear people badmouth Amazon.

Saturday, October 24th 2020
Sat, Oct 24th 2020

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29JP Addison3dOffer of help with hands-free input If you're experiencing wrist pain, you might want to take a break from typing. But the prospect of not been able to interact with the world might be holding you back. I want to help you try voice input. It's been helpful for me to go from being scared about my career and impact to being confident that I can still be productive without my hands. (In fact this post is brought to you by nothing but my voice.) Right now I think you're the best fit if you: * Use a mac * Have ever written code, even a small amount, or otherwise feel comfortable editing a config file * Are willing to give it a few days * Have a quiet room where you can talk to your computer * Are in the UK The first thing to do is to order this mic [https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blue-Yeti-Premium-Recording-Streaming/dp/B07DTTGZ7M], which should arrive the next day. Then you can book a call [https://calendly.com/jp-addison/voice-input] with me. Make sure your mic will arrive by the time the call is scheduled.
2TrenchFloat3dI'd like to compile the inner-monologue responses people use to correct their own over- and under-confidence, both in forecasting and in judging one's own abilities, job prospects, etc. Accuracy and balance are always ideal, but I'm interested in how people to respond to thoughts that casually prop up, which are suspicious of over- or under-confidence. Examples might be... Responses to underconfident thoughts: "Sure, there's only a 10% chance of getting that job, but it's not a lottery. They'll pick the best person for the job." "Sure, there's only a 10% chance for me, but the odds are just as low for everybody else, so that's no reason not to at least go for it." "I'm still pretty uncertain about X future event, but I've spent a good amount of time thinking deliberately about it. No such thing as perfect certainty." Responses to overconfident thoughts: "What are the odds everybody else going for that job also thinks they're a shoe-in?" "Even a 3% chance of something really bad is worth a lot of attention. Don't bet the farm." "Remember Thomas Edison and his lightbulb? You'd do well to expect a few more failures yet." These aren't for those situations that call for intellectual rigor, just casual course-corrections. Even still, critiques are welcome. If there's already something out there that compiles correctional one-liners like this, I'd love to see it. Or, if you're interested in seeing a larger post on this, let me know of that too!
1Nathan Young3dAt what size of the EA movement should there be an independent EA whistleblowing organisation, which investigates allegations of corruption?

Friday, October 23rd 2020
Fri, Oct 23rd 2020

Thursday, October 22nd 2020
Thu, Oct 22nd 2020

No posts for October 22nd 2020
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3alexrjl5dI'm considering taking the very +EV betting opportunities available with the US election with the money I plan to donate over the next 6 months, then donating the winnings (or not donating if I lose). Some more discussion on my twitter here [https://twitter.com/lxrjl/status/1319337946928078850] but I'm interested in thoughts from EAF members too. It's not a huge amount of money either way.

Wednesday, October 21st 2020
Wed, Oct 21st 2020

Tuesday, October 20th 2020
Tue, Oct 20th 2020

Personal Blogposts
32A tale from Communist China
Wei_Dai
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3Prabhat Soni7dI've never seen anyone explain EA using the Pareto Principle (80/20 rule) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle]. The cause prioritisation / effectiveness part of EA is basically the Pareto principle applied to doing good. I'd guess 25-50% of the public knows of the Pareto principle. So, I think this might be a good approach. Thoughts?

Monday, October 19th 2020
Mon, Oct 19th 2020

Sunday, October 18th 2020
Sun, Oct 18th 2020

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