Credal resilience
ACredal resilience is a measure of the degree to which a credence is more resilient the less it is expected to change givenin response to new evidence.
BibliographyFurther reading
Further readingBibliography
Egan, Andy & Adam Elga. 2005.Elga (2005) I can’t believe I’m stupid. , Philosophical perspectives 19(1): 77-Perspectives, vol. 19, pp. 77–93.
Popper, Karl. 1959. Karl (1959) The logic of scientific discovery., New York: Basic Books.
Skyrms, Brian. 1977.Brian (1977) Resiliency, propensities, and causal necessity. , The journalJournal of philosophy 74(11): 704-Philosophy, vol. 74, pp. 704–713.
I think this entry could be improved and expanded using some of the content, terms/concepts, and/or links from this shortform of mine: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gcEayv6HtBogfov2n/michaela-s-shortform?commentId=otZLATzjTfMRuE9JA
I don't have time to do that myself right now, plus I think other people in the EA community are more knowledgeable about this stuff than me, so hopefully someone else can do that!
Otherwise it's possible I'll circle back in a few weeks/months.
Further reading
Egan, Andy & Adam Elga. 2005. I can’t believe I’m stupid. Philosophical perspectives 19(1): 77-93.
Popper, Karl. 1959. The logic of scientific discovery. New York: Basic Books.
Skyrms, Brian. 1977. Resiliency, propensities, and causal necessity. The journal of philosophy 74(11): 704-713.
The example used here is a stochastic process, which is a case where resilience of a subjective probability can be easily described with a probability distribution and Bayesian updates on observations. But the most important applications of the idea are one-off events with mainly epistemic uncertainty. Is there a good example we could include for that? Maybe a description of how you might express/quantify the resilience of a forecast for a past event whose outcome is not known yet?