Fermi estimate
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Applied to Making better estimates with scarce information 8d ago
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Applied to Estimation for sanity checks 8d ago
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Applied to Scale of the welfare of various animal populations 11d ago
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Applied to The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation web app 1mo ago
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Applied to How many people are working (directly) on reducing existential risk from AI? 2mo ago
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Applied to Guesstimate: An app for making decisions with confidence (intervals) 3mo ago
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Applied to How Many Lives Does X-Risk Work Save From Nonexistence On Average? 4mo ago
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Applied to Estimating the Average Impact of an ARPA-E Grantmaker 4mo ago
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Applied to Cost-effectiveness of operations management in high-impact organisations 4mo ago
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Applied to Is improving the welfare of arthropods and nematodes underrated? 5mo ago
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Applied to What is the relationship between impact and EA Forum karma? 5mo ago
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Applied to Open Letter Against Reckless Nuclear Escalation and Use 5mo ago
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Applied to Quantifying the impact of grantmaking career paths 5mo ago
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Applied to Calibrate - New Chrome Extension for hiding numbers so you can guess 6mo ago
cause prioritization | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty | tools for collaborative truth seeking | squiggle | guesstimate | prediction markets | value of information