Fermi estimate

Applied to Concepts of existential catastrophe 16h ago

Applied to Marginal value (or lack thereof) of voting 1mo ago

Applied to Supervolcanoes tail risk has been exaggerated? 2mo ago

Applied to Can we help individual people cost-effectively? Our trial with three sick kids 2mo ago

Applied to Cost-effectiveness of The Introductory EA Program and 80,000 Hours’ 1-on-1 program 2mo ago

Applied to Estimates on expected effects of movement/pressure group/field building? 2mo ago

Applied to Expected value and uncertainty without full Monte Carlo simulations 4mo ago

Applied to The theoretical computational limit of the Solar System is 1.47x10^49 bits per second. 6mo ago

Applied to Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear war 6mo ago

Applied to New probabilistic simulation tool 8mo ago

Applied to Badness of eating farmed animals in terms of smoking cigarettes 9mo ago

Applied to Prior probability of this being the most important century 10mo ago

Applied to Welfare ranges per calorie consumption 10mo ago

Applied to Quantifying and interpreting the risks of mountaineering 11mo ago

Applied to L’inquinamento da plastica nei mari sembra uccidere molti meno uccelli e mammiferi marini rispetto ai pesci pescati (esempio pratico di stima di Fermi) 1y ago

Applied to Making better estimates with scarce information 1y ago

Applied to Estimation for sanity checks 1y ago

Applied to Unjournal Evals: "Advance Market Commitments: Insights from Theory and Experience" 1y ago