Fragile world hypothesis/polycrises

Jebari, Karim (2019), Civilization Re-Emerging After a Catastrophic Collapse, EAGx Nordic presentation

 Mokyr, Joel (2000) King Kong and Cold Fusion: Counterfactual analysis and the History of Technology, in P. E. Tetlock, R. N. Lebow, & G. Parker (Eds.), Unmaking the West: 'What-if?' Scenarios that rewrite World History (pp. 277-322). University of Michigan Press.

Turchin, Alexey et al (2022) A Pin and a Balloon: Anthropic Fragility Increases Chances of Runaway Global Warming, Effective Altruism Forum

 Lynas, Mark, Probabilities of worst case scenarios, 80 000 Hours podcast

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as extinction, due to the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot^[4] combined with the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries^[5], and/or due to the possibility of a collapsed-and-rebuilt society having much less benign values than our own.^[6]

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as extinction, due to the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot^[4], combined with the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries.recoveries^[5], or due to the possibility of a collapsed-and-rebuilt society having much less benign values than our own.^[6]

1. ^{^}

   Manheim, David (2020) The fragile world hypothesis: complexity, fragility, and systemic existential risk, Futures, vol. 122, pp. 1–8.

2. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 2.0), published by the Cascade Institute

3. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 1.1), published by the Cascade Institute

4. ^{^}

   Dartnell, Louis (2015) Out of the ashes, Aeon.

5. ^{^}

   Maher, Timothy M. Jr. & Seth Baum Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe, Sustainability, vol. 5, pp. 1461-1479

6. ^{^}

   Townsend, Michael (2022) What We Owe The Future: A review and summary of what I learned - Lesson one: Today’s values could have easily been different, published on the Giving What We Can blog

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as existential risk,extinction, due to the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot^[4], the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries.^[5]

The Seshat Databank is a repository of data used to predict possible paths to societal collapse.

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as existential risk, due to either 

• the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot^[4] and, the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries,recoveries.^[5] or
• high contingency

  The Seshat Databank is a repository of our current values^[6] meaning a reboot would potentially leaddata used to a civilisation whose values are much worse.

1. ^{^}

   Manheim, David (2020) The fragile world hypothesis: complexity, fragility, and systemic existential risk, Futures, vol. 122, pp. 1–8.

2. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 2.0), published by the Cascade Institute

3. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 1.1), published by the Cascade Institute

4. ^{^}

   Dartnell, Louis (2015) Out of the ashes, Aeon.

5. ^{^}

   Maher, Timothy M. Jr. & Seth Baum Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe, Sustainability, vol. 5, pp. 1461-1479

6. ^{^}

   Townsend, Michael (2022) What We Owe The Future: A review and summary of what I learned: Lesson one: Today’s values could have easily been different, published on the Giving What We Can blog 

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as existential risk, due to either 

• the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot^[4] and the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries.recoveries,^[5]
   or
• high contingency of our current values^[6] meaning a reboot would potentially lead to a civilisation whose values are much worse.

1. ^{^}

   Manheim, David (2020) The fragile world hypothesis: complexity, fragility, and systemic existential risk, Futures, vol. 122, pp. 1–8.

2. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 2.0), published by the Cascade Institute

3. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 1.1), published by the Cascade Institute

4. ^{^}

   Dartnell, Louis (2015) Out of the ashes, Aeon.

5. ^{^}

   Maher, Timothy M. Jr. & Seth Baum Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe, Sustainability, vol. 5, pp. 1461-1479

6. ^{^}

   Townsend, Michael (2022) What We Owe The Future: A review and summary of what I learned: Lesson one: Today’s values could have easily been different, published on the Giving What We Can blog 

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as existential risk, due to the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot^[4] and the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries.^[4]5]

^[5]Not to be confused with the vulnerable world hypothesis. 

1. ^{^}

   Manheim, David (2020) The fragile world hypothesis: complexity, fragility, and systemic existential risk, Futures, vol. 122, pp. 1–8.

2. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 2.0), published by the Cascade Institute

3. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 1.1), published by the Cascade Institute

4. ^{^}

   Dartnell, Louis (2015) Out of the ashes, Aeon.

5. ^{^}

   Maher, Timothy M. Jr. & Seth Baum Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe, Sustainability, vol. 5, pp. 1461-1479

6. ^{^}

   Dartnell, Louis (2015) Out of the ashes, Aeon.

A weaker version of this hypothesis is that such a collapse isn't inevitable, but is potentially as great an area of concern for longtermists as existential risk, due to the 'at a minimum, very difficult' nature of even a single technological reboot and the possibility of an increasingly difficult series of collapses and recoveries.^[4]

^[5]Not to be confused with the vulnerable world hypothesis. 

1. ^{^}

   Manheim, David (2020) The fragile world hypothesis: complexity, fragility, and systemic existential risk, Futures, vol. 122, pp. 1–8.

2. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 2.0), published by the Cascade Institute

3. ^{^}

   Lawrence, Michael, Scott Janzwood & Thomas Homer-Dixon (2022) What Is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it different from a systemic risk? (version 1.1), published by the Cascade Institute

4. ^{^}

   Maher, Timothy M. Jr. & Seth Baum Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe, Sustainability, vol. 5, pp. 1461-1479

5. ^{^}

   Dartnell, Louis (2015) Out of the ashes, Aeon.